SOFI & Robinhood Investors BEWARE— Don't Make This Mistake!
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SOFI & Robinhood Investors BEWARE— Don't Make This Mistake!

Invest with Henry 16.04.2026 9 493 просмотров 455 лайков

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Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

SoFi and Robin Hood investors, beware because you may be making this very crucial mistake. I want you to take your beer goggles off right now and we're going to look at both stocks where they are. Both have been in some trouble, but where do I see them going next based off of my own personal research? My goal is to grow wealth and to be a smarter investor that makes really good decision. When I look at SoFi stock, which is what we're going to start with, the stock is trading for $17. 40. Now, the stock has basically been kind of like a dead fish for the last one month, it is down 2. 5%. But I will tell you, my 10,000 shares that I have, which makes up 4% of my portfolio, and Anthony Notto, I trust. Anthony has been adding shares of SoFi. And if anyone knows something about SoFi, it's going to be the CEO himself. So, I trust my SoFi shares with Anthony Notto because he has been making insider buys. Now, my average cost for SoFi is $21 per share. And I believe that I'm probably going to be breaking even on SoFi within the next 6 months. And I see the stock coming back to $25 or more per share in 2027. So, that is some time and it's just very difficult to predict the short term. But within, you know, the next year, I think that this stock is going to be on a really good and tremendous run because the CEO knows what he's doing and it's going to take him some time to raise the earnings. And as this company's earnings go up, the fundamentals are incredibly strong, the stock is going to fall along with it. So, the biggest mistake that you can make as a SoFi investor is panicking, selling, and seeing this selloff as something's wrong with the stock. That is literally furthest from the truth. I have a put option that I sold right here. SoFi $18 put and I am very excited on 417 to basically get assigned here. I hope that SoFi stays below $18 in the short term because that means that I'm going to dollar cost average and get more SoFi shares at the strike price of $18. From a technical analysis standpoint, you can see here how there's a really strong and massive support for SoFi in the low $15 range. However, over the last three months, the stock is literally down like 35%. And it has basically taken the elevator down. Not even the stairs, just literally the elevator. But now we see strong stability and the stock is recovering. So what I think is going to happen is basically before we know it, within next two to three months, as long as SoFi can deliver some good earnings. Let's scroll down here. Let's go a little bit uh lower. Market cap 21 billion. Once they have good earnings, I really think that the stock is going to be basically at $20 plus. Now, the short interest is pretty high right now. And that just means that there's just a lot of bears. There's a lot of bears that are betting against SoFi. And there has been a little bit of accounting uh fraud that, you know, there's claims from muddy waters. And right now, that's just the claim. And I'm pretty sure a lot of companies cook their books, right? Financial engineering is a very real thing for all businesses for the most part because who's not trying to look better, right? Everyone is trying to earnings max. They're trying to, you know, cash flow max. They're trying to revenue max. They're trying to, you know, show their best side from a financial engineering standpoint. That's the whole point of accounting, right? Like accounting is to keep track of a business, but it's also to make the business look more attractive. So, when there's accusations that SoFi might be cooking their books, I mean, maybe they are slightly, maybe, but that's not really an issue in the long term. If they are proven, maybe the stock will pull back, but the chances are pretty low, and I wouldn't be too concerned. But that is probably one of the reasons why short interest is up a lot. Now, this short interest kind of looks really bad, but it's really going from 120 to about 170 uh million. So, you know, it's not crazy, but it's definitely something to be concerned about. So, you know, one of the mistake that you can make is just being overleveraged into SoFi. I think it's a great stock, but again, pay attention to what I'm doing, which is I have 4% of my money. I'm very concerned about risk overall in my portfolio because my goal with my own portfolio is to generate enough income that I don't need to work. And right now, I'm making these videos because I want to and I want to help you become, you know, more financially free, to be in a better situation. But it's really important to understand risk management. position sizing. And basically for any position that I have, it's usually like 5% of my portfolio. I'm usually not going beyond 5% unless it's, you know, a stock that I really, really love. So far, I love, but right now 4% my goal is to get my position up to 5%. So when I see um the short interest this high, it is a little bit concerning. I'm not going to lie. But long term, I'm still really bullish on the stock. Now, in terms of economic mode, um you know, I wouldn't be looking at this type of information here. Um this is just one uh report. Um but you can see a lot of analysts do have a price target that's between $ 20 to $30 on SoFi. If you look at all of the uh

Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

analysts now, in terms of earnings, like I said, crazy good. Everything else doesn't really matter. What really matters is if a company is truly growing, they're not lying about that growth. Okay? If they're growing and So, you can see here that earnings quarters have been very good with beats four times in a row. So, when I'm looking at end of April, April 28th, when the next earnings happens, I'm pretty excited because if they beat earnings, then we're going to go back uh above $20 per share. And that's very likely to happen considering that SoFi has beat earnings four times in a row. So, I think we're going to come in at a fifth time. They beat more times than that, by the way. This is just the only data that I'm showing you through, you know, just the Robin Hood app. Now, SoFi recently delivered record adjusted net revenue of about $3. 6 billion for 2025, which is up roughly 38% year-over-year, showing that the business is scaling very fast, not stalling. It is scaling. So, I'm telling you, the stock and the financial numbers right now are very, very mismatched. SoFi member base and products keep accelerating. The company recently added around 1 million members in a single quarter. That is freaking mind-boggling. In a single quarter, 1 million members and hit record deposits of about 37. 4 billion, which fuels lowcost lending and platform growth. Now, my belief, and this is Henry's opinion, I'm not a financial adviser. I'm not registered for anything. This is my opinion. I personally believe that SoFi is going to report ridiculous earnings numbers. They're going to beat and the stock is going to prove resilient. And that's all because of SoFi's financial matrix. The financial matrix of SoFi is much stronger than many investors understand. Once you're inside of SoFi's ecosystem, it's like being on child support. You're literally going to be paying or you're going to jail. Their growth strategy revolves around the member flywheel effect. And from start to finish, it's basically acquire customers, acquire as many as possible through advertising, SEO, and marketing. Okay? Acquire customers at any means possible as cheap as possible. Cost CAC being low. Okay, CAC being cost of acquisition. From there, it's all about personalizing and cross-selling. So, personalizing the experience of the customer, making sure the customer, they start off with one product, Mr. Customer comes in with a checking account, but making sure that customer has a good experience. So, maybe it's a student loan. By the way, student loans are even better because a student loan is a very long duration product. And if a customer comes in with a student loan, that means they're probably pretty young on average and they're going to have a long-term value for SoFi. So long-term value or lifetime value is essentially how much money SoFi can make on a customer in the long-term grand scheme of things, right? So, if they come in under a checking account, well, there's really not that much money to be made on a checking account. But once they get a credit card, now SoFi is making fees. And maybe from there, they get a home loan. So, once loan, oh man, SoFi is banking, you know, banking. That's a joke. Banking, but they're banking money. Okay? Because a home loan is you're making interest. You're making a lot of interest. And that's a long-term contract. Basically, it's like a 30-year thing usually unless you pay off your mortgage earlier. So, this significantly increases LTV of SoFi and they literally don't have that much acquisition cost. So, they have this member flywheel effect really dialed in. So, once a customer enters the door, they come in through that door, there's a whole lot of upselling. Upselling is actually built in to the UX via smart nudges, reminders, and pre-approved offers. SoFi literally knows what the customer wants before the customer even kind of knows what they want. So they know better based off of big data. So isn't just another bank stock. It's building the operating system for modern money while already cranking out billions in revenue and rapidly rising profits. Customer acquisition cost super low. SoFi uses referral rewards, sponsorships, partnerships, SEO, uh heavy content marketing. So, when you're looking at potentially selling SoFi or cutting your position when it's already down, that's a massive mistake. That is not a mistake that I would be looking to make. That's my personal opinion. SoFi's assets have literally grown faster than JP Morgan or Bofa, Bank of America, over the last 5 years. Yet, it's just a fraction of their scale. And SoFi is continuing to monetize through cross-selling and their upselling engine. So a student loan user gets a nudge into opening a checking account and a checking account turns more into you know maybe it's option trading right so they have option trading level two I studied data analytics back in college because I already understood that big data was going to be very big part of businesses

Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

making decisions and so has become very good at predictive analytics so predicting financial needs timing offers very precisely and they're very good at automating re-engagement so email marketing very strong and when a customer is not upgrading they have re-engagement emails that they can get the customer back into you know engagement. What's also really powerful about SoFi is they have software like economics. So right now the stock is down a lot but once the platform is built and each new member joins the cost to servicing that member is very low. So duplicating their revenue without raising cost per you know customer which is basically variable cost is not really a factor for SoFi. So basically most businesses especially you know hard product businesses whether it's like a chair or whatever hard product right when the revenue goes up the costs go up with it because variable cost is directly proportional right but when you look at a software business the reason why they have such high multiples and they can trade for multiples in 30s 40s 50s and even beyond that is because they have software like economics as soon as revenue goes up in a software business you know the cost doesn't necessarily go up. It's like, you know, selling a course or selling software that doesn't really cost you anything to really sell it once it's already made. So, when I look at SoFi as a business, I'm excited for them to acquire more customers and to sell those customers. And over time, when I look at the price of SoFi, I almost want to laugh. Biggest mistake is like getting out of a good quality company when the stock is going down. That is literally the opposite of what you should be doing. So, Robin Hood recorded fullear 2025 revenue of about 4. 5 billion, up roughly 52% year-over-year. Yet, the stock over the last three months is also down 38% which is a very large amount to be down. And I have a pretty big loss on Robin Hood. This is a big position for me and makes up 5% of my portfolio. I have 3,000 shares of Robin Hood. And I really wanted to understand how is Robin Hood making money? Where is Robin Hood going from here? What is a CEO doing? And how do I manage this position? Because this is not an easy position to be in. And I do have a couple of uh options that I personally have on Robin Hood. And I'm using options to hedge and protect myself as much as possible because this is a volatile stock. Robin Hood has a lot of volatility. However, once I research the business that I'm going to share with you, I think that overall it is a mistake to be selling Robin Hood at these levels. So, let's look at the specifics. how Robin Hood actually makes money today. Transactionbased revenue, and this is really a huge part for them. This remains the core of Robin Hood's business model. The more accurate up-to-date figure is right around $776 million. Robin Hood's official Q4 2025 results show transactionbased revenue up 15% year-over-year. Total net revenue was around $1. 28 billion. So transactionbased was roughly 60 to 61% of the total. So far in 2026, Robin Hood continues seeing pretty strong trading activity. However, the stock has just been cut down to like a level that's just too cheap, man. Like just too cheap. I think there's so much money that an investor can make if the stock recovers. The stock is down 38%. That's a massive discount. So, what I'm doing is I'm just trying to generate as much income as I possibly can myself. I'm up $3,800, but of course, this is my current position. I've done this a lot on Robin Hood. So, the 120K that I'm down is not really truly, you know, 120K. I made probably 20K in the process, but I'm still down six figures. I have lost money on Robin Hood. And this is a stock that I have been in more recently. So far, I've been in for years. Robin Hood decided to get into it more recently. I think Robin Hood is really revolutionary. You're probably using Robin Hood yourself. It's very easy and a lot of influencers on YouTube promote it for free. Like they're not paying me anything. I'm not getting paid by Robin Hood. But I talk about all the time and I've been using it for like since the very beginning, right? I think it was like 2015. Wow. Decade. 2015. Yeah. It's crazy. Been so long. But it has a most simpler user interface. They have a lot of bonuses and they have more members than SoFi. So, their members are growing like crazy. Now, a lot of people mistakenly think that Robin Hood is free and they're not making that much money. Oh boy, are they milking you. They're milking you more than you think so. They're milking you like a cow. You think that you're trading for free, you're absolutely not. They have something called payment for order flow. So Robin Hood routes customer stocks, options, and crypto trades to market makers like Citadel, one of the biggest companies who pay Robin Hood a very small rebate for order flow instead of charging users a commission. This lets Robin Hood offer zero commission trading while earning on the back end. So one of

Segment 4 (15:00 - 19:00)

the strongest reasons that I believe that Robin Hood is going to be a $100 plus per share again in probably 6 to 12 months is because they have so much feebased revenue. Now they also have a lot of net interest revenue. So, this is the second big engine that they have. Robin Hood earns interest from assets it holds and loans that it makes. So, net interest revenue grew 39% year-over-year to $411 million in Q4 2025. And their interest on uninvested cash just continues to grow. This is money that users keep in their account, but they're not using. So all the money that you have, let's say it's 200 bucks, $2,000, $20,000, or even much more than that. This is money that Robin Hood is making without really paying. Margin lending is another area where they're making a ton of money on us. So interest charged when users borrow to trade on margin. That's also a really big area for them. Now, securities lending is borrowing stocks from users accounts to lend to other traders with fees. Of course, it's another area for Robin Hood. interest on banking related products like cash, cash management is yet another income stream for them. This stream is a lot less volatile in general, all the things that I mentioned and transaction revenue that helps them stabilize earnings. This is basically what they are more stable in which is nice because it's their second biggest engine. Now their third and this is other revenue which is smaller but also growing. This bucket now includes several newer and more diversified revenue lines. One of them is premium subscriptions. I have Robin Hood Gold. Do you? Well, if you do, you're likely really going to be locked into Robin Hood for the long term. Robin Hood Gold, which is a paid monthly subscription with perks like margin access, larger instant deposits, and research tools. Subscribers have grown literally millions of users, making this a recurring income source. So Robin Hood has all these people paying five bucks, but when it's a few million people, that five bucks is basically millions and tens of millions of dollars per month and recurring revenue that Robin Hood makes. Now, a bigger thing is really the psychological lock in because once you're paying something, even five bucks, all of a sudden paying becomes normal. So now you're willing to adopt more products from Robin Hood. See what they're doing? They're taking something out of SoFi's playbook. For me, the highest profit margin today that I see with Robin Hood is net interest income. So, cash balances, margin loans, and securities lending. This is the cleanest, most stable, and highest margin part of Robin Hood. Once users par cash, the spread drops to almost straight profit. And this is where a lot of money will be made for Robin Hood's cash flow. Now, derivatives and subscriptions to options, crypto, that's also really big, as well as prediction market. So, I've been betting a little bit on tennis here and there, and Robin Hood has been basically taking an arm and a leg. They've been charging like 300 bucks and 500 bucks and so on and so forth. I've probably paid like thousands of dollars worth of fees to Robin Hood based off of just, you know, investing or I don't even want to say it's investing. It's gambling. It's basically gambling, sports gambling. So, they do events. So, it doesn't even have to be tennis. It could be like NBA. They even let you bet on the weather. They UFC. There's just so many things that you can bet on and they take some cash for that. So when I look at Robin Hood as a business, I'm pretty bullish on it long term. I think that SoFi and Robin Hood both are going to have, you know, similar returns because they're they are both fintech companies and they do have a lot of correlation. So these are two companies that honestly I have a lot invested in and um I'm going to continue to do my best to hedge and hold because I believe that right now they're looking very cheap. On Robin Hood specifically, I have a covered call position and my covered call has really helped me generate some income and has protected some of my downside. If you're interested in learning covered calls and seeing step by step how I open covered calls, select strike price and how I manage a covered call most importantly, even if it goes into the money, then I have made a free course on covered calls, which I would love for you to check out and learn step by step on how I do covered calls myself. You can see that video on the screen or in the description. So, make sure to keep studying and learning more about option trading and improving your option trading level.

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