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𝐋𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞: I’m not a financial advisor. The information contained in this video is for entertainment purposes only. Before investing, please consult a licensed professional. Any stock purchases I show on video should not be considered “investment recommendations”. I shall not be held liable for any losses you may incur for investing and trading in the stock market in an attempt to mirror what I do. Unless investments are FDIC insured, they may decline in value and/or disappear entirely. Please be careful!
Оглавление (4 сегментов)
Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)
You guys see the bounce that recently happened in the market. Pretty insane, right? Pretty big bounce. And that's what happens when the stock market is in bare mode. Everything is uncertain. A lot of investors have a lot of panic and fear. Yet, the market can rise multiple percentage points in a day given volatile situations. Now, the fear and greed index is currently sitting at 14, meaning there's a whole lot of fear and greed in the market. You know what that means? That means that a lot of investors right now are still afraid of the market are not investing in the market and the investors that are loading up the boat and preparing for you know the future which is likely to be bright and not in war hopefully right I can't predict the future but the Iran situation most likely will blow over so what we're seeing right now is a bit of a relief rally where investors are buying up stocks because they understand longterm the market will get back to a business as usual situation. So the point of this video is how high will we go from here? When will we get a recovery and I also want to cover some stocks such as SoFi, Palanteer and others that I'm holding. Now first of all I want to give you a warning. The first warning is when you see a rally in the market and the market is full of volatility that may be a dead cat bounce. Whether you know what a dead cat bounce is or you've seen it in movies, a dead cat bounce is essentially when the market is coming down and then it bounces up and a lot of investors get excited and like, okay, are we back to recovery right now? Are we going to go back to the moon or we're going to have a V-shaped recovery? But a dead cap balance is, you know, cap bounces, but it's still kind of dead, right? Kind of like the name suggested. So, what happens is you get a little bit of an increase in the market, whether it's, you know, a couple percentage points or even more than that, but then the market continues within its trend. What I think is likely to happen given the Iran situation is that this is a short-term deadcat bounce. The most important thing though is that even in bad markets, the best returns, the highest return days actually happen in that type of market when the market is not doing that well. It can have huge spikes on a, you know, day-to-day basis and some days within a week month, right? So, if you miss on those days, then you are missing tremendously in overall returns. There's a statistic out there that if you miss something like three of the best days within the S& P 500 within the market in a given year, your return basically drops in half. And if you miss seven of the best days, then your return is basically flat. So missing seven of the best days in the year makes your returns pretty much zero. And if you're in a bad market and the stock market is down and we have negative returns and S& P 500 is down, guess what happens when you miss some of the best days? Well, even worse than that, right? then that could be a formula for negative 15% and negative 20% returns and pretty much destroying your portfolio, destroying the value of it. So that's what actually happens with most traders. They end up losing in sideways markets. They end up really losing in down markets because they're just used to up markets. If you're a beginner and you've been investing for not that long, since co has happened, we've been in essentially one big bull market. It's been Tesla leading the group of gains and then you know following up with uh Nvidia and other AI companies lots of hype companies and there has been a lot of you know let's say easy gains within the market over the past five or six years however we are in an actual difficult market now right so back in April 2025 the market also had a difficult period and that was not that long right after that little situation the market recovered and every single time the market has recovered Right now, I would say this a little bit different of a situation because we're in this market in the war situation where each party thinks that they're winning, but no one really knows. And that is really dangerous because that basically has no real end, right? No end in sight for the short term. So, what's likely to happen is just a whole lot of continuation of volatility. So, I want to go over my portfolio real quick and I want to show you kind of what I'm looking at because one of the stocks that I'm personally looking at is SoFi. So, SoFi has come down a lot and again yesterday was a pretty big day. So, as you can see, you know, pretty nice five figure day. Um, and the portfolio is doing pretty well. One stock that I'm looking at dollar cost averaging further into is SoFi. So, SoFi is down just a ridiculous amount and right now it's trading for $16 per share again. It was at $15 a couple days ago. What I think is going to happen is as the war situation continues and uncertainty continues, this stock is probably going to go sideways. And that's actually not a bad thing because two things that I'm doing personally, and again, this is just my personal take. I'm not a financial adviser. I'm not licensed. I'm not registered. Please be safe with your money. And don't risk more than you can lose. So, I have to get that financial advisor disclaimer out the way just to be safe here on YouTube. But uh look what I am personally doing with my own money of course. So I am I have a couple positions here. I have $18 puts and $22 covered calls myself personally. So why
Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)
do I have these positions? Well, first of all, the 18 sell put that I personally did, which still has about two weeks until expiry. Um if SoFi is under $18 per share, cool. I'm going to get acquired and assigned on SoFi and I will have to get more shares. And that's fine with me. I like SoFi at this price. I like it at that level and I would be glad to dollar cost average because my personal average cost is $21 per share. Now, keep in mind I have been covering SoFi for years. I personally bought it for like $8 per share myself a while ago. I've traded in and out of the stock. It has contributed to my portfolio gains, which, you know, has done very well over the past well, I've been investing for 11 years, but I guess I've been public with the portfolio for six. Part of that was SoFi. It was a big part. And this average cost right now sitting at 21. One way that I can get it lower is by getting assigned. So assignment would actually help my average cost. Crazy, right? If I were to get assigned, lowers my average cost. So when I'm looking at this market, this difficult market, and I'm trying to determine, you know, what do I do? And it seems like all hope is gone. Seems like returns are just not happening. And it's very difficult, right? A lot of people are giving up in this type of market. They're like, this thing is a scam. This is very frustrating and I agree to an extent. There's a lot of insider stuff happening. market manipulation. There's a lot of uh insider purchases. People with advantaged information that we just don't have. Whether you watch YouTube or not, whether it doesn't matter because some of these people just have information from inside, right? From like Washington DC type of stuff. So, when we look at the short-term stuff, I just don't really think it makes sense to look at the short-term market. I really don't think so because unless you have vantage information, which a majority of people don't, then short-term trading just doesn't really work, right? The market's going to fall, but then it's also going to have big rises like we saw the other day, and that is inconsistent. So, the only way to actually get consistency is to buy high-quality companies and hold them for the long term and dollar cost average. Following the news will actually do you a disservice because oftentimes it gets the investor emotional and when you're emotional you end up making more decisions and bad decisions come from making more decisions. Statistics show that um high school or whatever grade school teachers will outperform financial professionals. Literally Mrs. Smith at the local you know elementary school teaching third grade math who holds an index fund is beating Mr. you know Mr. Wall Street who is paying attention to the market day and night researching losing sleep and doing all the research in the world with his fancymancy PhD degree. Okay. So that is the fact that majority of cases will lean that way that the elementary school teacher is winning and that's simply because yes simplicity is the way to go. That's what I teach within my program. Um as you can see I've had um these two SoFi positions. Let me explain the other one which is a covered call. That's what I'm doing. I'm selling puts to enter into SoFi to dollar cost average and further get my average cost lower and then I'm also doing covered calls. But another stock that I really like is Palanteer. So Palanteer actually with the whole war situation um you know there's been some several people on the news which are popular and I cover Tom Lee by the way sometimes not even because I really like him just because everyone else likes him and people he's very popular. But I think there's some valid points that he has, which is in the second half of the year, the market is probably going to not really look at the war as much because the war is going to either end or just going to become a situation which we just been in for a while, right? So people are going to start paying more attention to where is the value plays, where can they invest money into uh to make smart decisions. Quite frankly, the crazy thing is war is um historically a good thing for the stock market. The stock market typically goes up because there's a lot of money made in war. So war is a business uh just like everything else is a business. Uh every literally everything is a business whether it's the cell phones that we're using or the food that we're eating or the sicknesses the food gives us to go to the hospital so the doctors can prescribe medications. Business is business. Money is the primary driving force for majority of people. And when you look at war it is an opportunity for making money. Now I don't like that and I didn't make the rule book and I don't I'm not a fan of that. I wish that was not the case but that is the case for reality of the world. Okay. And when you look at Palunteer it's at 147 and over the last 3 months the stock is down 18%. So Palunteer is presenting a nice discount. Now I have a good amount of Palunteer as you can see on my screen it makes up slightly under 10% of my portfolio. So you know I'm using risk management principles. My risk management principles are just try not to go over 10% on a single position unless it's Nvidia. For me I break rules for Nvidia. But look, even Nvidia investors are struggling right now. Pretty much all the stocks in the market, they're not doing too well because of investor psychology. So, it doesn't have anything to do with the business itself. It just has to do with investor psychology that investors are afraid of the market. And a lot of people are questioning right now whether AI spending, yeah, it's huge, but the
Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)
returns are unclear. So, investors are wondering, hey, is the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on AI, is that actually going to turn into profit? What's going on there? And that's fair. That's really fair. But regardless, that spending is going to Nvidia cuz they are the infrastructure play. So, I like Nvidia and I break rules for Nvidia and I go over 10%. But for Palanteer here, 9% is what I'm going to be sticking to. And I do have a small really small amount here. Um 160 put that I'm going to be getting assigned on. Now, that goes into the future. So, something on that I have on Palunteer here goes into the future. So, not too bad at all. I do have an in the money um covered call personally. Now, that's a different story. That's something that I'll cover more so in my coaching. I do that on a more specific basis and I do higher delta stuff personally um to hedge because I believe hedging is very important in a volatile market. So I do hedge a lot and I'm not swinging for the fences. A lot of investors are looking for those big plays. I'm not. I'm just looking to grow the portfolio steadily and I do have my portfolio personally to retire. So I do withdraw money from my portfolio all the time and that's why it, you know, my portfolio has not been over uh the 4 mil mark because I'm withdrawing money, right? The apartment that you see here, the travels that I do, I take money out of my portfolio. I am in the retirement zone basically. So I think that's really cool because I actually do, as I say, I eat my own cooking, I invest, and then I live off of my portfolio. So, I think that kind of brings credibility and some transparency there that the stuff that I'm teaching is doing for myself. I don't have any real estate. I don't own any properties. I don't even own a car. I don't own anything. Nothing. Everything is rented. So, I take taxis, I travel, etc. Right? So, my portfolio is all I got and this is the only thing that really uh funds the things that I do now. One more thing that I wanted to say in terms of like positions that I've had that I'm very proud of personally is Walmart. I think Walmart has been just one of the best plays in this uncertain time. So guys, one reason to be a part of my community and I don't want to be like a sales guy here, but to be honest, what do you think has happened to my portfolio given 32% of my portfolio is in Walmart and over the last 3 months Walmart is up 11 12%. So all you guys that are down, you're following the wrong YouTuber. You're following guys that are telling you about the next, you know, once in a decade opportunity. The titles that I see out there are outrageous. The clickbait titles that I see is outrageous. It actually pisses me off to see every YouTuber chasing views and pushing these uh the same narrative, the same stocks, and it just it's just a copy fest. One person's copying another, they're saying the same things. They're using Chad GPT. uh you know I won't get into that too much detail but what I want to point out is if you're underperforming and you haven't gotten the return take a hard look at who you're following your own philosophy take a hard look at uh how your portfolio is invested take a hard look at your risk management if you're not getting results there are places in the market that are getting results so when I look at my biggest position this never gets views on YouTube it never gets subscribers it doesn't get likes and nobody gets the KPIs that, you know, I need for YouTube, but I'm still going to cover it. Walmart is my biggest position. I tell all my students this is my biggest position and I show them and then we go over some stocks such as Walmart that are not sexy, that are not on YouTube, that are not the cool stocks that everyone wants to invest in. Yet, a lot of the stocks that I personally look at that I don't show do very well. As you can see right here, Walmart 3-month return positive position sizing massive total return pretty massive. Now, I do a lot of research. I wake up every single day and I do research for my community. That's basically what I have sold myself to. I don't know if I'll put it that way, but I sell coaching just like every other YouTuber. Most of them sell courses and webinars, etc. But I sell coaching. And on my coaching calls, I analyze the real stuff, the real deal stuff, companies that I believe in and pretty much know are going to perform well over the long term because that's the most important thing for wealth building. It's not chasing the cool stuff and the videos that get half a million views because everyone's a sheep and they watch the same video. It's better to follow a smaller coach who has weird opinions because weird often times turns into successful. And if everyone is following the same stock and it's a crowded tra it's called crowded trade, man. Crowded trade. And you look at what's getting a lot of views on YouTube, it's the same stocks. And those are crowded trades. So I don't really like being in crowded trades. Some are obvious. Nvidia is an obvious one and there's such a big market cap. It's obvious. But crowded trades suck because they go up and then when they come down, they all come down together. They come down really hard because there's overexposure into those stocks. And when you look at, you know, stocks that have more stability that I have a bunch in, it's something like a Walmart. I have a couple others as well. But yeah, there is opportunities for
Segment 4 (15:00 - 19:00)
gains even in bare markets. There's strategies and hey, I think it's a good investment to learn more about that. I think it'd be really smart for you and really wise to just learn more about what I'm doing because what I'm doing specifically is very different from everyone else. And the stocks that I'm looking into is also very different. They are not crowded trades. And I'm not trying to figure out the next, you know, Amazon. What I'm trying to do is trying to find consistency. And I've been very successful at that considering my portfolio has stayed very stable during times where I'm still withdrawing money and had some very expensive travel costs. By the way, with the whole Dubai situation, very last minute travel things and I had already paid and locked in very expensive rent. Very expensive. Dubai can be very expensive and I already locked in rent so I lost a bunch of money there. Anyways, that's my personal situation. But it just it's a testament to how stable the portfolio has been despite all the hardships and the funds that I had to take out of it. All right, so what else can I say about the market? Let me wrap this up. You know, I don't prepare for these videos. I like to make it authentic. Look, risk management is the most important thing right now. If the last thing that you do is just have 15 stocks, that'll help you tremendously because you need diversification in this market and you also need different sectors. So when I think about a lot of people have tech stocks, I love tech stocks, but the problem is if you only have tech stocks, they are correlated. Correlation means that two things move together. Okay? So ice cream sales and warmer weather are going to be correlated, right? So when it's warmer weather, more people want ice cream. Well, when Microsoft falls, Amazon falls. And when Amazon falls, Apple and Google and Netflix and Tesla, they all kind of fall together. So it's incredibly important to understand your sector diversification. This is very specific and I'm not going to bore you on YouTube. This is something else that I do in my coaching. I look at all the sectors. Real estate sector, industrials, consumer staples, consumer uh discretionary, healthcare, materials, so energy, right? You need to have different sectors because even in situations where the market is down, there are some sectors that are up. more defensive that will perform well. So, you should have multiple different sectors. Now, one more thing that I mentioned a couple days ago was valuation compression. So, this happens when the company continues to grow, but investors are willing to pay less for each dollar of earnings. And this is when expectations get way too high and then expectations pretty much reset. So, it's not that bad right now that the market is coming down because a lot of growth stocks are coming down to more value levels. So, when I look at the long-term prospects as a long-term investor, things are again attractive. Things become more attractive when the market is down. You should look at that as a discount opportunity. It's not really a discount when the market continues to go up and you feel FOMO or fear of missing out and then as an investor you're just like I want to buy this and you put all your money in there at the top, right? It's very difficult to know where we are in the market cycle. But one thing is for certain right now we're trading for much cheaper levels than we were trading at. Another thing that's certain is unless we get a loss decade like Japan, I don't think that's going to happen, right? America's one of the strongest countries in the world. Then the market will be at an all-time high again eventually. So if you look at where we are right now, where we were and the fact that the market will recover just a matter of time. Was it 6 months or is it 12 18 months? When and when the war situation will end. Is it again the 6 days um 6 weeks or 6 months? We're going to be back at higher levels. So take advantage of this opportunity. It's a once in a decade opportunity as all the YouTube titles go. It's a once in a decade opportunity. There's a thousand of those on YouTube. But kind I can't say it's not. If you're a newer investor with cash, I would say it's I don't know if it's a once in a decade opportunity, but it's a once a year opportunity. I would say in my opinion that um to dollar cost average and become a long-term investor. So anyways, that's my opinion. So I'm not a financial adviser or anything like that, but um you know, this is just my research and I am pretty bullish on the market in the long term. It pays Listen, there's one rule. It pays to be a bull. All right? So do the right research, follow the right people. Uh, I welcome you to subscribe to the channel and to check more of what I have to offer and you know be happy to help. Either way, thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.