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𝐋𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞: I’m not a financial advisor. The information contained in this video is for entertainment purposes only. Before investing, please consult a licensed professional. Any stock purchases I show on video should not be considered “investment recommendations”. I shall not be held liable for any losses you may incur for investing and trading in the stock market in an attempt to mirror what I do. Unless investments are FDIC insured, they may decline in value and/or disappear entirely. Please be careful!
Оглавление (3 сегментов)
Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)
Hey, what's going on guys? In today's video, I want to go over a trade that I am personally looking at that I find very interesting and it is going to be a covered call trade that I want to make in my portfolio on SoFi stock. So, let's go over SoFi stock, kind of an update on it, where I see the stock going, most importantly, what are the current risks, where is it at in its technical uh cycle, where's the technical analysis at? Well, so far it's down a tremendous amount. And if I go into one of my positions here, you'll see I have a $22 covered call. This is a position that I've already had for some time. Currently, I'm actually up $4,900 on this position, but so far it's trading for $1624, right? And my average cost is $21. So, it's currently below my average cost. Now, the reason why I am still bullish on SoFi is that SoFi still has a really strong business overall. The fact that they can still acquire customers even in difficult times, they can still get revenue even in difficult times is why I believe this stock is going to persevere and go back to pretty much the levels that it was at. So, if I go to the one-year return here, you know, so far it was trading for a lot higher. It was in the $32 range and now the stock has been crushed. It's been annihilated. The stock has fallen so far down that it's about 50% lower than where it was just a couple of months ago, right? Just a few months. We as investors have gone through some tough times. And this has certainly been, you know, a pretty decent hit to my portfolio. Now, I am diversified. I have multiple other positions such as Palunteer, uh, AMD, NBIS, and other stocks that I like, Shopify, etc. So, SoFi is currently about 5% of my portfolio. I do have it as well in my retirement account here in this portfolio, just under 4%. Now, my goal personally with SoFi is I believe the stock has sold off to levels that are honestly just too cheap in the long term. I think this is a great entry to look at. And you guys know I'm not a financial adviser, but I did my research. I did my research and what I believe is that SoFi is around $24 in fair value. Okay, fair value meaning what the company is worth on a discounted cash flow basis. So that's under my own assumptions. I did a revenue uh projection and then I did a discount rate for all those future cash flows based on the way SoFi is acquiring customers. Now, their customer acquisition is impeccable, guys. The way that they can acquire customers through marketing is something that I really haven't seen a whole lot. And when they get a customer, they're very strong at keeping that customer. SoFi's strategy really revolves around the member flywheel, okay? from start to finish their flywheel is get customer in right through a very cheap way student loan free checking account some something that's low friction very low friction then once you're in they're getting you on credit cards investing in home loans and much more to get the LTV up they're trying to get squeeze money from the consumer's pocket that's all they care about that's the name of the game right get you in personalize your experience which is a good thing they a lot of data and then upgrade you. And when they upgrade you, they may upgrade you to right investing, home loan, something that's going to be profitable for their pocket. How do they get your money from your pocket to their pocket in a nice way? They have learned that upselling is the way to do that through built-in UX features via smart nudges, reminders, and pre-approved offers. Okay. So, when I'm looking at SoFi, I'm bullish on their business. I know they know how to acquire customers. retain customers. Acquire, retain, and basically generate a lot of cash flow. Cash flow is strong. Cash flow is good for SoFi. So, they have really, man, it's crazy. They're like diabolical with it. They know how to cross-ell and upsell like geniuses. The app even shows you you're missing out on X amount of dollars if you don't, you know, sign up for this credit card. You qualify for X rewards. They know how to do the customer uh behavioral analysis and behavioral psychology for the upsell. Now, given all these things and Anthony is a good CEO, you know, there's no doubt about it because why is SoFi so popular on social media? That's marketing. That's literally like free marketing for them. Social media views is super powerful. You guys don't understand. There's influencers on
Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)
YouTube who have went through my program, started their own coaching, and I'm pretty sure they're doing hundreds of thousands of dollars per month, right? Some of these option coaches making millions of dollars per month. And social media gets attention, and attention can be turned into money. SoFi gets a lot of attention on social media. I don't even think anyone mentioned this. Nobody literally mentions how much attention SoFi gets. There's literally so many people making videos. When I was making videos on SoFi years ago, there wasn't that many people. Nowadays, it's like everyone's making a video on it. And the stock aside, that's good for the business because more people are now brand aware. When you're brand aware, you are more likely to do business with the company. Okay. So, SoFi is sitting at 16. whether you know I had a position or I don't have a position. I'm looking at opening up a new position this week. And what I want to do is I want to get in right now. into SoFi when it's under 20. While it's under 20, I think that this is a really good entry, right? So what I'm going to do, I'm going to go to trade here, trade options, and I'm simply going to go for May 15th something. Okay, I'm going to show you a couple things that I'm going to personally do because I like to diversify. Option trading, stock trading is risky. The stock market is risky. We all know that there's a lot of volatility. There's volatility with the Middle East situation. There's volatility in general. So, when I'm looking at making a trade, I really want to make sure that I have proper position sizing that is just not that high, right? I want to have positions that are less than 10% generally because when you don't have enough diversity, your portfolio experiences a lot more volatility. That's not a good thing. So, just like volatility is not a good thing in terms of position sizing, I'm going to mention something new that I haven't mentioned on this channel for a long time or even if at all, there's something called times diversification. Meaning that I'm not only going to open up for myself May 15, I'm also personally interested in June and July. Okay. So, what I want to do is I want to open up a 17 covered call on SoFi, which gives me very limited upside. Not that much, but I'm going to collect a pretty good juicy premium. But next, what I want to do is I also want to go to June 18. So, for example, I'm going to go to May 15th. I'm just going to do this. And then I'm also going to go to June 18. And for June 18, I want to give myself a little bit more upside, right? Because a lot can happen from now till June. We all know that the more time there is, the more volatility can occur, right? There's a longer period of duration. Duration meaning time. Okay? So, time is higher. Therefore, you know, I think this is going to be a, you know, fair value for me. $24 per share. That's my personal view. So, I'm going to go for $20 here. Okay. Now, if I go to August. All right. Now, I can go a lot higher because now there's more duration, right? So, I can go for 22 and I can also go for a se uh September expiry. Okay. If Robin Hood lets me. This is a three option order. And I'm going to go to my final kind of price target for the year 24. Okay. So, if I hit continue here, um this is a really unique and awesome um opportunity that I'm looking at. Again, you do your own thing. research. Stock market trading is risky. Just want to get that out the disclaimer out the way. But I'm interested in this. I'm excited about this because this gives me multiple levels of exit on SoFi. And if SoFi ends up going up to 17, 18, 19, but it doesn't hit 20, then part of my position will sell off. Other parts may not sell off. And now I'm diversifying across time. So there's volatility in, you know, the time period from now until the last option expires. I'm diversifying against really big moves in the, you know, the shorter term, the medium-term, and the longer term. So this is a covered call position, which I'm really excited about. And for so far, I think the brand's really strong. Anthony has been doing some insider um purchases. So when I see an insider who has advantaged information such as Anthony notto you know CEO he knows what's going on in the day-to-day operations of the business and if I see that the CEO is purchasing shares which Anthony purchased 29,800 shares on March uh 17th was not even a month ago then he sees something in the business and he bought it for if I recall $17. 32 some something around that range and so it's currently under. So when I do a covered call, I'm excited about it because not only am I getting a average cost that's lower than Anthony Notto, but also through the covered call, I'm acquiring um premium. I'm getting paid, right? When you sell a covered call, you're essentially agreeing that your risk is that you lose a stock at that strike price where you sell the covered call and someone else is buying a call option from you. They're paying money. You're the one collecting it. the cash enters your account immediately and now you have a you know a situation where you have hundreds shares of stock and then you sell a call option one call option per 100 shares so see how many shares I have on SoFi currently holding
Segment 3 (10:00 - 13:00)
10,000 shares okay so if I have these shares you can see my position 22 call now I want to do a little bit more diversification I want to reduce risk and I still want to get premium you can also see that this 22 call has already kind of made what it's going to make because the current value of it is only 13 and this option expires on May 15th. So, I don't really have a whole lot more that I can make personally on SoFi. Only way I can make more is, you know, closing this position, opening up a new one, which in all fairness, I think that's a really good idea because I've already made going to this option here. I've made 79% on it. So, there's not that much more to make. I only have a remaining about 20% to make on this position. However, that remaining amount, it's not low. was 1300, but I can actually make more if I ended up um kind of taking this a little bit lower, right? So, by May 15th, it's only about 1 month from today. 22 is a little high, a little higher than I need. So, what I can do is I can actually readjust this position to something like 20. Now, you can see here that if I were to move it down to the same expiry, right, 34 days and 34 days, the time doesn't change, duration doesn't change. I'm just taking down the strike price because SoFi is low. It's not looking like it's going to have a fast recovery. Therefore, by taking the strike price from 22 to 20, uh what I'm looking at doing for myself, this will, you know, increase my risk a little bit because I can lose the stock at 20. I don't want to lose it at 20. So, it'll increase my risk a little bit, but I'm going to collect a total credit of $1,400. So, as you can see here, no time change. Total credit is going to be $1,400. And essentially, that would be $1,400 income that um I would collect here. So, this is a really interesting position because it increases risk slightly. I would even argue that doesn't increase risk too much because the stock is still, you know, $35 away from this strike price and the strike price only has 30 days left. So, so if I would have to have a really big upswing, high momentum in the short term for this option to become in the money. That is the risk. The option goes into the money, then I'm going to be having to look at a circumstance where I may lose my shares. I may get assigned. Now, early assignment doesn't really happen too often unless the delta is super high. the delta is not going to be high unless SoFi were to like skyrocket to 24 to $25 per share or even higher than that which just frankly it's not really likely. What's going to make SoFi go up is likely their next earnings report. So next time they have earnings and they you know give us an update about uh whether it's customer acquisition or sales or revenue growth or margin expansion, one of those things or some other you know ingenuity that they come up with then that's going to make the stock rise. Usually, it's earnings. So, in the time before earnings, stock's probably not going to skyrocket for no reason. That usually doesn't happen. So, that's why with this position right here, I feel pretty safe that this would be a smart decision on my end to collect some income and um and wait to see what would happen before earnings. And then leading up into earnings, I'm probably not going to have a covered call because I'm bullish on SoFi in the medium to long term. Short-term, it's anyone's guess and it's very difficult to tell. Now, I have been looking into one of their other competitive advantages, which is their SEO heavy content marketing strategy. I think that's going to really pay off in the long term. All right, guys. So, this was like my quick little tutorial and video here on what I am personally doing with SoFi. If you want a full tutorial, I recently uploaded a full free course on covered calls. This is the most valuable course that I have ever released on YouTube. And I am shocked and I am appalled that only has 6,800 views despite putting in weeks of work into it. It is going to be so life-changing for you to look at that course. Take some time and really watch it. It's going to take your covered calls to the next level. And I do a lot of similar stuff that I did in this video. So check it out right here. It is going to be a smart use of your time to learn and master covered calls.