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Оглавление (3 сегментов)
Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)
Hey guys, what's going on? Jeff here and in today's video we are going to be talking about the massive rally that Bitcoin has witnessed overnight because as of today, as of right now, Bitcoin is the most bullish that it has been during the entire bare market. Bitcoin just diverged from the pattern that we've been following over the last several weeks in a very bullish way. Is the bare market about to be over? Well, obviously it's too early to tell for sure, but things are promising. And so in today's video, we're going to break down exactly why Bitcoin may be about to see a major rally. So without much further ado, let's go ahead and dive right on into it. Bitcoin, as you can see, is currently trading at $78,500. And this is so important because over the last several weeks, we have seen Bitcoin playing out a virtually identical pattern to what we saw happen later on last year. And that pattern looked a little bit something like this. Bitcoin back then essentially went through an ABC corrective movement that looked a little bit like this. We had our A movement to the 0. 5, our B movement to the 236. Then our C movement up to the 618 and then when we fell below the 20 daily exponential moving average, Bitcoin capitulated. Well, it seems like Bitcoin has been doing much the exact same motion. If we draw a Fibonacci retracement, you can see that Bitcoin rallied up to 0. 5, back down to 236, and then up to 618. But over the last few days, as Bitcoin came down to once again test the 20day EMA as it did here on the 18th of January, instead of breaking below it, Bitcoin actually bounced. And this is really important because so far this pattern has perfectly mirrored the previous bare flag that caused us to drop. So what gives? Is Bitcoin still going to drop below 60K or are we about to see a major rally? Well, it's interesting because Bitcoin has over the last several weeks found itself wedged between two very important levels of support and resistance. The level of support being the 20-day exponential moving average, which currently sits right around $76,000, and the level of resistance being this 20weekly EMA. But you can see out here on the weekly chart, Bitcoin is actually now above both on the open and the close of this weekly candle, we are above the 20weekly EMA and the 20weekly EMA has flattened out. These are early signs that the bare market is under threat. The only time that we saw this kind of formation take place in the last bare market was right here. After that, we saw a massive crash on Bitcoin and then right here, which is what actually preceded the entire bull market on Bitcoin. We saw a massive bull market takeoff after this happened in the last cycle. So, it's pretty obvious to anyone who understands technical analysis that the next couple of weeks and the next few thousand dollars are going to be extremely consequential. if the Bitcoin bare market was ever going to end in Q2. This is the closest that we've ever gotten to it. It's definitely too early to say that the bare market is over, but it's also too late to say that the bears aren't strong because they obviously sorry that the bulls aren't strong because the bulls obviously are showing a great deal of strength right now. However, here's the concern. If you go to BTC1 exclamation point, the Bitcoin futures chart, there is still a very strong bare thesis. And we need to break that down for you. You see, there is a historical trend for Bitcoin to fill CME futures gaps. And the CME futures gap on Bitcoin right now that is most important is the one immediately above our head. In fact, there's a massive CM futures gap starting at 79,700, just above the price of Bitcoin right now. And it extends all the way up here to about 84K. You can see this was set when Bitcoin absolutely plummeted through the floor between Friday, January the 30th, and Monday, February the 2nd. This led to a $5,000 tall CME futures gap that Bitcoin seems to be getting magnetically attracted to. Here is the concern. The concern is this. So far, we have been using this peak right here as our top of the Fibonacci as our one level. If you do that, then you can see that points that puts the 618 Fibonacci level right here at $79,300. If Bitcoin breaks through this level, theoretically, you would think that means that a bull market starts because breaking through 618 on Fibonacci analysis typically tells us that the market is no longer bearish and this is actually an impulse movement to the upside. The issue is this. You can just as easily and honestly, possibly more accurately, draw the Fibonacci off of this high. And if you do that, the 618 is no longer at the bottom of the Fibonacci pocket. Instead, it's at the top. And so the concern here is this. Bitcoin seems to be getting a bounce which is different from the correction that we saw over here. It is holding on the 20 uh daily exponential moving average whereas it fell through over here. But what happens if Bitcoin does bounce here, rally up to the new 618 that is used off of this high and then reject, in other words, fill the semi- futures gap sometime next week and then fall through the floor. You see, this is one of the only reasons that I cannot say that Bitcoin is about to go into a bull market because we just don't know how Bitcoin is going to operate in a
Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)
post Bitcoin CME futures gap filling era. I want to see this CM futures gap get filled and then I want to see Bitcoin set a higher low. For example, here at about 75,000. This would be an ideal movement. If Bitcoin is able to rally up to $84,000, it would successfully breach the underside of this correction, which currently has a bottom at 80K, it would allow Bitcoin to go back into the 80,000s for a time, which would definitely help the bullish thesis. And then if we can get a higher low, for example, up here above 75K, that is where you would start to see the bulls gain significant power, and we would start to call the bare market as over. and we would say that our thesis of Bitcoin going below 60K is no longer the predominant and most likely outcome. And so this would also, just so you know, if we did this, this would also lead to Bitcoin possibly breaking through the 20 uh W EMA, falling back to find support on it. Anywhere above 75K will do. And then that bounce would be everything that we need to give a bull market confirmation. This is the exact same setup that we used around 25236 back here at the bottom of the last bare market to confirm that the bull market was starting. We saw Bitcoin break through the 20 uh weekly exponential moving average, find support on it and bounce when that 20W EMA started pointing up. That was very bullish. We broke through a key level of resistance and then set it as support. And if we see the exact same thing play out here where Bitcoin manages to turn the WMA facing upwards, as you can see, it's flat. So, this is a good sign. Obviously, if we can get it facing to the upside, that would be even better. If we can see Bitcoin getting support above $80,000 and above the 20W EMA and starting a new uptrend, that would most likely put $100,000 square in the crosshairs. And this also doesn't even include the fact that we are seeing RSI sitting up here at 47, which is extremely bullish, very far above the 14 interval moving average, very uh very much getting into bull market territory. You can see during our last bull market, RSI would bottom out continually here around 45. We are now back above 45 which means that we are theoretically getting into bull market territory when we look at the strength of the bulls. The MACD has crossed bullish. So all in all we have a perfect setup to go into a bull market. The only question is whether or not Bitcoin actually will. And so that is what we are going to keep watching here on the channel. Is Bitcoin going to follow through on this incredible bullish thesis? Because if not, then the next leg to the downside could take us down to $50,000. So I'm going to continue bringing you updates, but what I will say is this. According to my analysis and everything that we've done, this is the single most bullish event that Bitcoin has built over the last 12 months. This is even more bullish than the runup to 126K because that runup was built on exhaustion. In this runup, there is a very real possibility that it could turn into a bull market. But because we follow our principles and ultimately I want to keep you guys safe, we are not prepared to call a bull market just yet. Although that time might be coming sooner than any of us think. So, we'll keep you guys updated. Want to give a big shout out to our new channel, Jeb McAfee Invests, because we just had an incredible announcement over there. You guys may know that I've been talking about an interview that we are going to do with David Nicholas, the founder of the Blocks ETF. And in this interview that I just conducted less than an hour ago, he just announced a new memory ETF. That's right, a new ETF is coming to market and he announced it on our stream. You can see the perspectus over here for DRMY. This is a fund that is probably going to have insane returns. Micron, um, SanDisk, SKH Highix, Samsung, all of these funds, all of these companies that create memory for the AI revolution, they have seen huge returns. And this fund is one that I'm very excited about. If you look at SanDisk, for example, I just took out a small position in SanDisk. It's up 2500% in the last year, and it's still got a forward PE ratio of like 10. If you look at Micron MU, these are names that he said are most likely going to be in this fund. Massive run. And even though they've gone on massive runs, the Ford PE is very, very small because the earnings are growing so much. As you can see, Micron, for example, here posting $24 billion of earnings. Not long ago, that was 8 billion. So, they're doubling tripling earnings every couple of years. and David Nicholas and the blocks ETF creators over at XFunds are creating a fund based on memory which is the bottleneck as it pertains to the growth of artificial intelligence. They have trillions of dollars worth of parent companies like Nvidia and TSMC that are buying from them. And so this fund is one that I'm very excited about and David Nicholas just announced it to the world for the first time in our video. So, if you want to get the alpha, I highly encourage you to come on over and check out this interview that I just did with David Nicholas, the founder of the Blocks ETF. It's got about a quarter billion dollars in assets under management. And also check out this video that I just uploaded yesterday about why I sold all of my SPY eye for XQI. Make sure to come and subscribe to our new channel invest because we're uploading over here once to two times per week. We just passed 1,000 subscribers on to 2000 very soon. If you enjoyed this video, make sure to hit that like button, subscribe to the channel, share it with someone that you
Segment 3 (10:00 - 10:00)
think might find value from it. And before I go, I do just first want to thank each and every single last one of you for watching as always. And I will see you guys in the next video. Peace.