Some Positive US EV Sales News, and Some Questions

All right, we're here for another CleanTechnica YouTube show to talk about I guess some hope for EV sales in the US and North America more broadly, some kind of positive signs in the midst of um plenty of not positive signs since Trump uh took office and has done everything he can to kill um EV progress in the country. Um we did have Steve here, but just had technical issues with sound and couldn't get him to um connect with us. So, just Larry Evans and me, Zachary Shahan today. Uh so, just to start off, uh one of the you know, I was doing what I do every quarter and I was just looking at all of the EV sales um updates from legacy auto from all auto makers, legacy auto makers and EV companies um just to see where things stand. And this has been one of the quarters, I guess, with the least um least kind of insight going into the reports as to what would be happening because you had the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit, um but that was a while back, a couple quarters back. Beginning of the year is never a big year for sales anyway. But then at the end of the first quarter, you had US and Israel um attacking Iran and all of the um stuff that's led to, so might have even stimulated some last-minute some quick purchases at the end of the first quarter. But overall, I was not expecting good EV sales reports. And indeed, many auto makers are reporting drastically lower off around 50% lower EV sales year-over-year uh comparing first quarters. Um but then I got to Hyundai and I was like, oh, what's going on here? Because the Ioniq 5 actually increased year-over-year in March uh 13% from almost 4,000 sales to almost 4,500 sales. And for the quarter as a whole, uh very similar, increased 14%. Um from almost 10,000 sales I'm sorry, from almost from 8 8,600 sales to about 9,800 sales. So, the Ioniq 5 improved. That might be related to the fact that Ioniq 6 is being uh is being taken out of the US market and it declined significantly um from 3,300 sales in the first quarter of last year to 830 this year, a 75% drop. So, there is hope because Ioniq 5 is one of the few models that had EV sales growth. It had sales growth year-over-year, but it might also be related to the Ioniq 6 going away. But on the other positive side for Hyundai, the Ioniq 9 was not on sale at this time last year. And it um it had almost 2,000 sales in the first quarter. So, overall, Hyundai's doing okay. Um it's very similar kind of story with Kia. They have um you know, sort of held steady better than others. Uh but yeah, no standout successes for sure. And then you've got the one company or the one brand, I should say, Cadillac, which is uh sort of going against the grain still. I mean, it's the brand for a while now that has been leading um in terms of percentage of its sales that are electric. So, there's no other brand other than fully electric brands, of course, uh that is um selling more EVs as a percentage of their total sales. In the US. In the US, of course, and this is all the US market right now. Oh. It it's actually it actually had 31% of its sales coming from EVs in the first quarter despite all of those negative trends in the industry. So, the Escalade IQ was up 27 I'm sorry, was down 27%. That one declined. The Lyriq was down 21% 20 22%. But the Optiq was up 66%. And the Vistiq um had one sale, one vehicle was delivered in the first quarter of last year, whereas almost 1,900 were delivered this quarter. So, technically 19100% 190,100% growth from one to 1,900. Um yeah, so overall, Cadillac's EVs are still doing well. That was what I was hoping to see because it seems like

the brand has really shifted to um having an EV focus, having several EV models, getting them into the getting customers into the cars as much as they can, like giving them rides home from the service center or something. And just overall, it seems like it knows that EVs are the future and it wants to transition well and quickly and be a leader. So, those are some positive signs in the US EV market amidst a lot of not positive signs. What uh what do you have to say about these cuz you also covered especially Hyundai Kia, but you're looking at all of it. So, let's what's your take on all of this and what else I'm missing here, of course? So, I walked into the New York Auto Show most excited about Hyundai and Kia because they have been doing well. They've been kind of a bright spot within the overall US market. Um I did not walk away as enthusiastic just based on some of the things Jose Munoz said and some of their shifting emphasis. So, at the show, we saw a body-on-frame solid-axle SUV take center stage at Hyundai. Um they had I believe hybrids and uh ICE take center stage at Kia. Um and he announced that they were going to shift to a more localized US strategy and shift more to what consumers want. The um BEVs weren't catching on the way that they hoped that they would and that they would be focusing more on hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and ICE moving forward, which all sounds very discouraging, but you go over to the Kia booth and they have the PV5, which is a van. And you know, there's a somewhat limited market for vans. Yeah. Yeah, it's electric van. It's a somewhat limited market for vans and van buyers are notoriously brand loyal um throughout the world. It's like one of the most brand loyal demographics out there. Um and they also had the uh EV3, which is a compact EV, 400-V front-wheel drive. You know, I was there with Lei from uh Chinese EVs and More and we kind of poked around on it and to us, it reminded us of a 5-year-old Chinese car, which is a step up from what we have now, but not necessarily to the level of fit and finish that um you would expect there now, but a definitely definite step up. And it all seemed a little bit perplexing. Why are they bringing a compact cuz this is a notoriously hard demographic period to make money on. GM and Ford have not been able to make money on a compact program probably since the Mustang was first introduced back into 1960s. Every time it looks like they have a chance of having a compact car of any drivetrain make money, something comes up with a quality program problem or re recall or something and they have to, you know, kind of step back. You know, Jim Farley is famous for his Fiesta movement and doing the promotion on that, and even he admitted that they just couldn't make them profitably. Um So, why would you come into the US market? Yeah, I mean, auto makers have pulled almost all cars, all non-SUVs out of the market and have really killed almost every like cheap smallish car that used to exist here. All of them. There There's very little margin in it in the regardless of powertrain. So, why would Kia introduce that here? And you know, looking through some other documents and then thinking about a few stalls over, you have the Bolt coming back to be killed a few months after it's reintroduced, also a compact, also in the EV segment. That didn't make a whole lot of sense. And then I started looking at the Hyundai GM alliance, where GM's going to supply them with the body-on-frame solid-axle platform to Hyundai. Hyundai's going to supply GM with compact cars and an electric van. So, I started looking at this and I'm thinking, well, we have a compact car and the first models being introduced are compact cars for Latin America, but if you're going to have a compact car, you need market scale. Um it's hard to make any profit on any compact car without scale. So, you have Latin American scale on that and we have a compact EV, which ostensibly is going to use compact car supply chains. Um and that all of a sudden starts looking market viable. We have GM who's going to have a hole in their lineup. That sounds market viable. Cadillac has high margins. They can they have a little bit more wiggle room, but you start looking at the lineup on where the Hyundai GM alliance is and you're like, well, now we have a lot more Now it may starts making more sense like

where all of these things kind of fit in. And I think that in the US you're going to see potentially some of these compact cars that are being produced by developed and produced by Hyundai make their way into GM lineups with free badges like free styling and all of that and that could gain access to more EVs in the US and more brands and get them to profitable scale whereas each compact low selling EV which is really hard to make profitably would have a hard time on its own. So that I think on one hand the overall announcement was a little discouraging in terms of the shift of focus but on the other hand there's potential there in this collaboration to get scale into market. Overall US automakers are intent on blocking the Chinese. It came up multiple times in multiple discussions with auto lines. Before we jump to that I would just a few things that jumped out to me on that as well are one I hadn't thought about the GM van thing but GM developed the whole bright drop electric van platform the 400 and 600 and it just decided last year to end that program. I assume if there's partnering with Kia on the PBV which is you know a multi-platform electric van thing. That maybe they just decided well, we can't compete with this. They've got a much better you know much better platform for making money on this vehicle and we can't make money on the bright drop especially in the current administration. So maybe that's part of it and as you said you know combining forces you can achieve scale and achieve profits much easier. So you know maybe that is at play. I'm I'm interested to see where that goes. As you said it's a tough I mean you've got also I mean it's a tough market to break into but then you've also got Ford had the e-transit or has the e-transit it's just not doing much and then you've got Rivian's electric vehicle electric vans but yeah I mean there's still like there's not much going on in that space so maybe they found a good opening on the small vehicle the EV3 I just couldn't believe it because like automakers been pulling out small cars and pulling out EVs out of the market and now they're going to bring a small EV to the market but then I just thought well you know if everyone's abandoning these segments maybe they're like well there's no one here to compete with for the you know relatively small American cons you know share of the American car consumer market maybe we'll make maybe this can work or maybe they're just showing it because they have they're a big they're like the main [clears throat] sponsor of New York Auto Show right or they're the biggest They have the largest displays. largest displays at near And then the third thing I thought was like maybe it's also you're right next to Canada maybe Canadian market would be interested with some changes and especially if there's the possibility of Chinese low cost small Chinese EVs coming to the market and maybe they thought well we better have a vehicle that could potentially compete there if that becomes if that comes alive. So those are the only things that really but I still don't even know if there's anything more than just showing a vehicle that they have in their lineup at a big auto show without any intentions but they would they did say something about bringing like bring it to the US market. So I don't I still like I can't believe it but at the same time like there's a lot of people who read us who are like well we want more small EVs you know Well and if you go on any enthusiast magazine 10 years ago everyone wanted you know the A6 or the S6 Avant station wagons in diesel with a manual and like or what whatever it was but like that sliver of a market is like you know a few thousand very loud people and it's always important to differentiate between the few thousand very loud people and the people who buy Toyota Corollas which have never won an award show in my entire recollection have never won a comparison test but are the most best selling vehicle of all time. So it's always important to separate what the market wants from what you know the enthusiast want so to speak. I will say that Hyundai knows how to make you know compact cars at a profit. That has been their strength globally. GM knows how to make solid axle body on

frame trucks at a profit. That has been their strength globally. Put the two together and now you have the strength of each it makes sense from that perspective. I will say that Nissan Leaf was there and Nissan Leaf I am surprised it's not selling well because you know the new one's actually it seems like a great vehicle like you know as well put together and well designed as the Kia if not better. Um you know like it it's it seemed like a very solid entry at that price point like you it we were they're all steps away from each other. You're steps away from the Bolt and it's like hard to imagine anyone other than people who are GM diehards getting the Bolt over Leaf if they're at the same price point. Yeah I'm sorry I mean Nissan brand took a huge hit after jailing ghost gone in Japan and him having to escape in a suitcase or whatever but uh they've just suffered everywhere but they also still had this kind of like base of buyers from Leaf early days but then the Leaf has gotten so much negative press over the years I wonder how much people are like not confident about it and I saw some commenters noting well we can buy you can buy a new Nissan Leaf or now there's a lot of options for barely used other barely used EVs on the used EV market. So you got the people with a lot of money wanting big expensive vehicles on the new market and then people who want a more practical value for money option shopping more on the used EV market now so maybe this doesn't have a big opening but still I see it as like a top choice for a new EV if you're if you're looking for a good deal and I'm surprised it's not doing better so I hope to see it turn around but I'm you know quite disappointed and it's won like every award under the sun. It's winning award after award like not just EV awards but all kinds of big auto industry awards so you would think that would pay off but it doesn't seem to be yet so I don't know. It's an attractive design. I will say right now you're when you see massive discounts from automakers that you know are losing money on EVs that's not a good sign for the market. That means that they have a demand problem. So like Honda you know like those massive discounts that's not a good sign. When you see EV resale values low that's not a good sign. If gas prices keep going up and you know the tight shifts in terms of affordability we could see all of those used vehicles become much more expensive relatively quickly kind of like the Geo Metros just skyrocketed in price to more than their new price during the uh you know during the the war with Iraq. You know it's like went crazy because here prices are skyrocketing people want the affordable thing. Nobody was buying them to begin with now they're like a hot commodity. That can happen cuz we do have a limited supply of used EVs in the US. That can happen. Um And demand has certainly shot up but nobody knows like how long this goes like what what's happening today or tomorrow. So I think a lot of people are sort of holding out and sort of hoping it changes quickly but the longer it goes on obviously the more people are going to be like well maybe I'll just get an EV and the risk of it going much longer seems like an obvious choice to get an EV so I don't know why anyone's really holding out but yeah the market should be rising for everything. But we're not really seeing signs of that yet so maybe yeah maybe we just have to wait but uh but The other thing that go goes with that is automakers even though we can see market changes and shifts auto makers who and legacies are working on five year timelines. Some of them more agile ones are on three to four year China's on you know 18 months to two years but if I'm a GM I have to be planning five years ahead of time when I'm making all these shifts so some of these decisions might have been made years ago. Yeah but just saying like the costs associated with canceling their plans you know shows that they had changed plans more recently but uh Yeah but just looking at like what you mentioned with like discounts on the Honda Prologue and stuff you know like they wouldn't be throwing $10,000 on their homepage if there wasn't you know if they were just moving everything they could so I don't know. We'll see how it played out but I mean there is going to be some kind of boost in EV sales from this but you started talking about the Chinese EV and so let's end with like the potential for what they will do in the market. Um, Chinese EV makers BYD and most notably Xpeng. Uh, I don't know. Xiaomi, maybe, uh, Nio. All of Leap Motor, which is part of

Stellantis, you know, has uh, connection to Stellantis. Yeah. So, I think that there are a lot of potential opportunities and entryways. Um, we're also seeing a shift within the Chinese market. Volkswagen's shifting to a very heavy BEV and PHEV focus within China. Have a heavy leveraging partners. Hyundai just announced today two new brand new BEV concepts. They're shifting to BEV focus within China, more localized, heavily relying on their partners to develop those vehicles. So, China is still on this growth cycle. Everyone's focusing their resources on BEV, um, as well as some PHEVs because they're realizing to get these sparse areas and get to 100% it's still going to be a few years before we're at 100% BEV in the market. Um, even though PHEVs aren't growing as fast, but the other thing that's happening is that the EV market in China is so astoundingly competitive that a lot of these auto makers are expanding outside of that the the market. Uh, Xpeng is working with Magna. Magna, uh, in Austria is formerly known as Magna Steyr. Um, they're assembling their vehicles. They're Magna is a Canadian-based company, so there's potential that they could know how to facilitate, uh, manufacturing in Canada. BYD's expanding rapidly. Their, you know, Brazil plant is just growing like gangbusters. They have a lot of international production going out. Um, they're rolling out 20 dealerships in Canada. That's a very hefty um, commitment in Canada. Now, some of those are on in Ontario, which is, you know, GM, you know, that's Detroit's backyard. Um, not a great EV market. Um, and that makes me think that they're going to start trying to produce EVs in Ontario. Um, because you wouldn't you would focus on the bigger coastal Quebec and British Columbia. Um, you know, if you were, you know, more import-centric brand cuz they're more import-centric markets. Um, so I think that that's going to happen. There are a number of place happening. Mexico is still growing even though they put up a hefty tariffs against Chinese direct imports. Chinese companies are setting up manufacturing. They are now s- uh, importing from their other factories. Um, Brazil has 50,000 orders from BYD going up to Mexico. So, all of that's happening all the way around us. Um, there's also the potential that BYD will start developing charging infrastructure and some of these Chinese brands will start developing their charging infrastructure. Similar to what we saw with the Tesla. Within 1 month in China, BYD installed more stations than Tesla's total in the US. So, — the numbers were nuts. I could not believe it. So, like, you know, we you covered this new flash charging that it's offering, you know, 1. 5 um, megawatt. Um, per gun. Per Yeah, per no- nozzle or plug, whatever. And then, like, a few weeks later or a month later, you're covering the how many was it? And I was like, what? I was like, how'd they deploy this many stations this quickly? It was absolutely nuts. What are some of the numbers from that? I don't have that paid that article up. I don't know if you can remember any. So, part of it is cheating because they had started installing them before they activate them. So, they activated 5,000 in a month. Um, at least 1,000 of those were installed in the month. — That helps me believe it. Now I see. Um, more than 1,000 were installed during the month. Um, however, you know, it's still a very rapid uh, deployment that's happening. Um, so they have 5,000-plus stations. Um, those stations based on some Shanghai numbers had two charging piles. Each charging pile has two guns on average. So, some would have one charging pile with two guns. Some would have more than two. Um, but that was based on the average. If you ba- break that out, that's roughly 20,000 flash charging stalls, uh, within a month. And that is a lot. They also implemented their first highway charging stall. That was one of the I think that was 5,000 was either one of one of the first three highway kind of rest stop charging stall. So, when you're going down the highway, kind of like Europe, you don't get off the highway, you go to the rest stop to refuel or to recharge, um, versus going into town. So, you kind of stay in the system, stay in the toll systems and all that. So, they have

their first and they're going to have 1,000 more of those this month in addition to their off-highway chargers. So, 1,000 more before the May 1st holiday, which May 1st holiday is end of the month. I mean, so they have 1,000 more of those going in, which will have essentially full highway coverage that you could travel the entire highway system within China on just flash charging. Um, not enough density, but — Yeah. Yeah, enough. — And they won't deploy like that much in Canada, of course. But what do you think they're going to look to do in Canada? So, they're putting 3,000 in Europe and there aren't at going to be as many cars that can flash charge or charge it over 1 megawatt in Europe. So, 3,000 is a lot um, for the European market, especially for a relatively new brand. They're planning on expansion. Canada, I wouldn't say it would be as much as Europe. I would maybe break base that on population, but we you could see all 20, uh, new dealers that they're putting in there getting these flash chargers as well as the main highways, um, that connect east to west, uh, along the in the population corridors. I could see that happening relatively quickly. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, their technological their technological progress development is in- insane, but I think it's even notably more so that they're looking to so boldly and rapidly deploy, um, these because, you know, the I don't think we've really seen anything like this. The scale of deployment does this how quickly they're deploying so many. Um, and like you said, in Europe, where it doesn't even have really market much market share yet, although it's built, uh, more market share than Tesla, unless that changed um, last quarter. But, uh, yeah, I mean, it's still it's just like a bold like this is going to be the future. In a few years it's going to be expected. We're going to do it now so that we have that market. I mean, it's pretty wild. So, I yeah, I imagine they're going to have a similar approach in Canada, but you like you said, uh, you know, based on what's needed, of course. Uh, yeah, so I don't know. Fast things to end So, any What are your final thoughts on these Chinese EV makers coming to Canada and North America more broadly like, um, what have you not said yet that you were leading to before? I think I think I think we'll be surrounded and, you know, like, people are trying to put up barriers. You know, there's a there's a lot of kind of resistance from some of the legacy manufacturers. You know, if you go to Ontario, there's a lot of political resistance. There are going to be some challenges and some road block blocks put up there. There going to be some narratives that are somewhat un- undoubtedly going to be somewhat misleading that might kind of slow it down, but they're moving in. They have, you know, multiple global partners to do this. It might not be an import from China that moves in, but the technology is there. Um, it might not be the latest, um, the latest technology in China that we get in initially, but it's going to be on both sides of the border. Uh, how long US consumers are willing to put up with paying a lot more for less of a vehicle, that's a good question. Um, but we're looking at I mean, we're going to have significant share in next year by next year in Canada, I would say. Um, and you're going to already, if you look at the 50,000 ordered in Mexico, that's 1/3 of their EV market, um, just from BYD. So, you're going to see some EV growth and share growth, um, from that from happening there, um, beyond the Brazil order. So, no, that's going to happen fast. Uh, when they come to the US, that's a big question. The politics are so, um, kind of s- so difficult. Um, but the world is moving on and I think that's a positive is the world is moving on and there are options out there and there are potential partnerships available, um, that if we decided to focus our priorities on, you know, vehicle electrification, reducing emissions, um, affordability, um, we have the opportunity to transition very rapidly because the progress is happening elsewhere. Just like, you know, you look at some of these Eastern European kind of captured automakers after the wall came down, they didn't necessarily succeed, but they were able to transition relatively quickly with Renault technology, Volkswagen technology.

You know, in the East Germany didn't stay buying Trabants after the wall came down. It transitioned quickly. So, there is a potential for that transition. I I'm not sure how long it takes or when that happens when the walls come down so to speak, but you know, progress is happening globally and we could see the benefit in the coming years. Yeah, yeah. I think even if the administration changes I whether or not we have a dramatic change in our stance on China, working with China, allowing China Chinese companies in. I don't know. Who knows, but um but I do you do see the partnerships with cattle CATL for batteries developing. It seems like the route goes more innovative partnerships like you said GM and Hyundai and Kia are having with might you know, with like Volkswagen has with Xpeng. Maybe that starts to happen more where it's like um they find ways to partner and bring the tech in with in a way that helps all parties, but maybe not. We'll see. And otherwise we're just falling further and further behind. I mean, we're South America is leapfrogging us real quick. Africa might be soon. Um much of Asia is. So, the US EV market is turning into a laggard of the world pretty quickly. So, hopefully that can change. I think a big challenge is that it's almost impossible on electoral basis to win the presidency without Michigan. And Yeah. No, that's a good point. — You have the unions associated with the Democrats and you have the management and legacy kind of industry affiliated with Republicans and fossil fuels that's a lot of resistance to change and I think that you know, even the Hyundai kind of growth strategy is seeing some you know, accusations coming out about like this that and the other and concerns about you know, workers rights and labor. So, even that's you know, potentially going to hit some roadblocks, but potentially you know, the political forces can align. We could see some you know, EV growth. But Michigan makes that Michigan, Pennsylvania, all the Rust Belt makes that a very hard proposition. Yeah, I mean, I think that the big hope for US EV market is it seems to be as is currently still just um legacy automakers that have big market here like Hyundai, Kia, GM um and then young startups like Rivian, Tesla still Yeah. progressing. Um you don't even like Volkswagen which has a pretty strong EV push globally. It's now news the how the latest news is pulling the ID. 4 out of the US market. So, it's like there's not really much positive, but as long as there are some things to cling on to, you know, we're going to keep focusing on those and seeing how hopefully they can go forward, but Yep, we do have some positive news which is good. So, I think you know, to kind of put this more globally, you think about Rivian and they may you look at their business numbers and you're like, wow, you know, it's like doesn't look that good. They're losing all this money, but then you think about their partnership with Volkswagen and you know, the value of their technology to other automakers is very much the value proposition of the brand and the ability to scale up ties heavily with that those other automakers. I look at Lucid and Lucid's you know, their proposition is tied to the Saudis being willing to keep putting money into thing until they work. You saw this with Emirates. I mean, you see this with the kingdoms. Emirates Airlines, Qatar Airlines, they kept putting money into those projects until they worked. They don't give up and you know, they're building out far more manufacturing capacity in Saudi Arabia than they have in the US. You know, the Saudis are using this as an example of how they can move up the value chain and look and become a more progressive economy. Um so, there is a lot of willpower and money behind that. And that has benefits within the United States and that even a company that looks like it's that's on paper losing $300,000 per vehicle you know, there's the potential for scale up in there. Cory Steuben of Munro had was recently talking about he's now over at Lucid. You know, Saudi Arabia has the benefit of good relationships with China and good relationships with the US. So, they can potentially bring in Chinese supply chain and sell vehicles to the US and that's that's a strong position. So, — Yeah. Well, I was I think there are some bright spots. If you think your way through them. It's a little complicated. I went to the UAE several times for clean tech conferences and events and stuff

and um the thing that to me I think is pretty clear is they're not none of those places are rushing to get off of oil. Obviously, that's where all their fortunes come from, but they all know the oil era doesn't last forever and they all know they have to just pour money into potential future industries like just incessantly. I mean, just like knowing it's going to be tough. They're going to lose a lot of money, but knowing that if they don't, they're going to come out of the oil era dead. So, it's like they have to do it. much more like you said a willingness to just lose money for indefinitely to to make a place for themselves in the future. So, I think that I think all the leaders sort of get that in a way that unfortunately the US still is like no, we'll just hold on to oil forever. It's not going away. Like the the ostrich head in the sand approach of the Republican Party and US a lot of people in the US is pretty astounding, but that's why we're so far behind others now. But like you said the technological advancements of Lucid, Rivian which also partnered with Amazon. Like the this is where it seems like there's still um a bit of hope even if it's not displayed in EV sales at the moment. But yeah, well, I'm sure we'll have a lot more to talk about next time next week. So, tune in again next time. Thank you, Larry. I thank you, Steve for trying. Um but hopefully um you'll be on the next show. Thank you, everyone for watching this thing. Don't forget to like, subscribe, do all that stuff, the bell, the hype. I don't know what's on there these days. Whatever you can do to support us. We're trying to build this channel up. So, thank you for your support. Peace.