☢ Ondo Finance Doubles its Leverage - ONDO Crypto Analysis

— Ondo Finance has just launched one of the most important platforms in the project's history. Ondo perpetual futures trading. We can now bet with leverage on various traditional finance assets. Thus, Ondo Finance is directly competing with the likes of Hyperliquid and Binance. The platform is live, it's running, transactions are happening, yet the price of Ondo, of the Ondo token itself, isn't moving at all. Is this potentially opportunity? Let's have a look at the on-chain data, the data most people aren't considering, to try to figure out whether or not it makes sense to buy Ondo right now. Hi, my name is Gareth. I've been in crypto for 8 years. I hit my first million 3 years ago, and I did this mainly through actively timing the market, trading altcoins, for example. My track record is public, feel free to check out the link down below. In the last 2 years, I published every single trade in real time, and on average, a trade made 5. 1% I held for 27 days, and all of the individual trades are listed over here. So, feel free to check out the details after watching this video. Now, I've already published a video on Ondo Finance 2 weeks ago, and it seems like the average retail investor here on YouTube has quite some interest in Ondo, because that video outperformed the average video on this channel. 65% more views than the average. The average video is here, in this gray area, and that last Ondo Finance video is the line in orange. Ondo is known for its platform of tokenizing traditional finance assets, and it has just launched the beta, so that was yesterday, June

9th, for trading on those assets using leverage. There's a dedicated account on X, formerly known as Twitter, and this is what's going on the platform right now. Let's have a look at the numbers. So, we've got Nvidia with an open interest of roughly $300,000. Open interest means how many bets are currently being made on the Nvidia stock in this case. Now, there's competition. Here is Hyperliquid, and for Hyperliquid, we've got 152 million worth of open interest. And so that's 450 times of the activity of Ondo Perp. Perpetual futures trading is the fastest growing sector within crypto. And within perpetual futures, it's the traditional finance assets that see most growth. So many people within crypto want to get exposure to the stock market. They can't buy the stocks directly through a brokerage account, and so they simply just bet on the price going up or going down using the Perp. Ondo started out with borrowing and lending, and now it's competing with the big guys. Some people are calling the rise of Ondo inevitable, but I'm not sure if I'd go that far because making the product is the easy part. Getting adoption for hard part, and we have a very strong incumbent. By the way, if you are on X, feel free to also check out the account of this channel, Bitcoin Strat. Make sure you follow the right account, not any impostor account. I publish data on various investment strategies regularly in this account. Now, here's the Ondo price in US dollars long term since launch. We fell until the beginning of the year, February, and since then, things look better. What I want you to notice is this over here. It seems like Ondo Finance had been trading in a sideways range at the beginning, but that's actually not what happened. When we look at Ondo Finance relative to the rest of the altcoin market cap, so now we divide the Ondo price by others, we see Ondo was in a very constant downward trend. So really, the reason why Ondo at the beginning did not crash was because the general market went up during that time. But relative to the entire altcoin market, Ondo was a very consistent loser up until April of this year. Now, in the last 2 months, we are trading sideways relative to the altcoins. Bitcoin underperformed the altcoin market, and so Ondo relative to Bitcoin is still appreciating. Now, where did this initial underperformance come from? Why did Ondo have such a hard time? The reason is tokenomics, as in the number of Ondo tokens that were floating kept increasing. Every year

there is an unlock. At the beginning that unlock more than doubled the Ondo circulating supply. Since those unlocks are linear in magnitude, we tend to see less growth relatively speaking. So, the next jump relative to what's already floating isn't as bad compared to the early days. And that might be one of the reasons why Ondo Finance is finally able to turn around. The tokenomics are relatively improving. Now, let's have a look at the on-chain metrics. We've got almost 200,000 holders of the Ondo token on the Ethereum chain. What we see here on the left side, that's the number of wallets with at least 3,000 Ondo tokens. So, that's roughly a $1,000 worth of the token. In the middle, it's 30,000 tokens, so $10,000 worth of the token. On the right, it's $100,000 worth of the token. We can see that the number of retail investors tends to grow a bit more consistent compared to the number of whale investors. Still, all of those numbers are going up and this is good. The question is always is the supply growing faster or is the demand growing faster? That differential between the growth rates of demand and supply is in the end what makes up the price performance. Now, have a look at the trading volume. And this makes a point why perpetual futures trading is so important. In the last 24 hours, we had only 14 million worth of trading volume on the Binance spot market. Compare that

with the perpetual futures market. Here we had 97 million worth of trading volume. So, there's more trading happening on the perps. There's more bets being made on the perps. That's really where now the fee generation is. price discovery is. And so, the funding rate for Ondo has been quite stable recently. So, the number of people that are betting on rising prices and on falling prices is somewhat balanced. Whenever there are more longs than shorts, then the funding rate goes positive and then those longs have to pay the shorts. It costs a lot of money to bet on rising prices of ONDO. Same is true the other way around, right? When a lot of people are bearish on ONDO, then there are more shorts than longs, then it costs money to bet on falling prices and the longs earn that return. But for the ONDO token, this seems to be relatively balanced, relatively stable. We can see that especially in the last 1 and 1/2 months, we've got more liquidations because of the higher volatility of ONDO. The question is, can we outperform further? Is there some more room for a rising ONDO price? I think the answer is yes, because check this out. This is the open interest. So that's the amount of bets that are currently being made on ONDO. It's a measure of how much inherent leverage there currently is in ONDO. When many people bet on the ONDO price, then the open interest goes up and that also means that market makers tend to buy up spot. Thus, we've got

strong correlation between the number of bets on the price and the spot price itself. And right now, open interest for ONDO is still rather low with 130 million. That peaked historically at 600 million. Now see how much this correlates with the ONDO price. When there is less leverage on ONDO, when that crashes, then the ONDO price tends to go down. When there is more leverage entering the asset, then the price tends to go up. So it's important to watch this metric. Price discovery really happens on the perpetual futures now and there is still quite a bit of room to grow for leverage to expand thus for the ONDO price to outperform. Now, I'm not a fan of reevaluating the position every day based on news. I think it's actually better to define trading rules, to try to figure out what kind of trading rule worked very well for the past and then apply this for the future. That at least worked very well for me. I like the idea of moving average crosses, so golden crosses and death crosses. We buy when the shorter moving average crosses the longer term moving average and we sell when the shorter moving average goes below the longer-term moving average. And so, using Bitcoin strategy analytics, the backtesting platform of this channel that's available to the premium members, I ran the backtest for Ondo Finance. Or to be more precise, I ran 40,000 backtests. This is a combination of a slow moving average and a fast moving average. And every dot over here is the result of a backtest. And of course, we want to invest where there is green, not where there is red. Historically, the best combination is over here, the 55-day and 61-day simple moving average. Historically, this would have been the performance. So, at the top, we've got just the Ondo price with those moving averages. In the middle, we've got the portfolio measured in US dollars. At the bottom, Ondo tokens. How much did this historically outperform? The answer is by almost 180%. Buying and holding would have given us 22%. Trading according to that moving average, close to 200%. This is where we are right now. The shorter-term moving average is above the longer-term moving average. We are still bullish. We got the golden cross just before the run-up. And so, I think this really is still healthy. Ondo still has potential to go much higher from here, especially if it's able to get adoption for its perpetual futures trading platform. Again, this is just an open beta, so it's no surprise that the open interest is so low. But once it becomes more public, and once we've got more assets available over here, it will not just be people betting on prices in general. It will also be arbitrage bots that push up the trading fees and thus the income for Ondo. There are a lot of positive headwinds that could potentially support Ondo, besides of course, the simple

expansion of leverage that's currently not that high. I'm using this kind of approach of backtested rules since I live publish my trades 2 years ago. This is the track record, the orange line over here, that's our open positions right now, which are blurred over here. But just have a look at this, right? So, for example, here for Luna, we shorted that versus Bitcoin. There are the announcements behind those date timestamps. You can verify everything yourself. With every single trade, there is an announcement. You can manually copy trade this. We had a death cross over here. And then, when we closed that Luna short, we had our golden cross. And that's then how we closed this particular trade with 14% profit. And so, the same history is for all of those trades for the entire history. If you don't have time for manual copy trading, there's also automatic copy trading. Last year, that made 44% per annum. So far, we are at 25% per annum. So, that's the performance chart. The automatic copy trading runs on hyper liquid, and it's available to the annual members. So, I recommend first just manually copy trading. And then, once you've made your first money, to then reinvest that, if you don't have the time, and potentially get into the automated copy trading. Again, more is explained in the link down below. Feel free to check that out. If it's the very first time here, feel free to subscribe. I publish this regularly. A like would be very much appreciated as well. It helps the channel grow. See you next time on YouTube. I'll see you on premium. Link to that pops up here on the screen. Thanks for watching. See you next time. Cheers.