⁠Something Terrible Is Happening in Syria | VisualPolitik EN

Achieving peace in Syria was never going to be an easy task. Far from it. But just over a year ago, Al Sharah or Al Jolani, his nondair, whichever you prefer to call him, took charge of Damascus with a promise, with a clear promise to rebuild a country utterly devastated by war. At least that was the image widely promoted. But there's one problem. And I'm not referring to the fact that this guy has origins in al-Qaeda itself. I'm referring to the fact that Syria is a country where almost 40% of the population is made up of minorities who may now have no place in the new Syria of this terrorist turned supposed ally of the West. Over the last year, we've seen attacks against Drews, Alawites, and recently against the Kurds themselves. These attacks seriously call into question the transition project that is supposedly underway and the very viability of the country. Not only because this means putting an end to the peace that seemed to have been achieved, but also because this could trigger the Islamic State to rise from the ashes and everything could go back to the way it was in a country that was almost annihilated by a brutal war that lasted almost 14 years and pitted many groups against each other. Now, we are once again receiving news such as this. 1,500 ISIS fighters escaped prison camps as Syrian forces pushed north. Army officials and Kurdish leaders have each accused the other of orchestrating the release of terrorists as Damascus seeks to unify the nation. — Visual Politic community, if there's one minority that has paid a very high price for the war against ISIS, it is precisely the Kurds. The Kurds are not a newcomer group or an improvised militia. They are a people numbering between 30 and 50 million without a state of their own spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran who have been surviving for a century within foreign borders and usually under very hostile governments. We've spoken about them on many occasions, partly because in both Iraq and Syria, they have traditionally been close allies of the West. In Syria, they represent around 10% of the population and are mainly concentrated in the northeast of the country. More importantly, during the Civil War, and especially from 2014 onward, they ceased to be merely an ethnic minority and became something far more significant, the United States main partner on the ground. When the Islamic State spread like a plague and threatened to take over all these lands and establish its own caliphate, the Kurds were the only ones capable of resisting, organizing, and truly fighting it handinhand with the United States. Out of that alliance emerged the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, a Kurdish-led military coalition that not only managed to defeat Islamic State territorially, but also went on to build something far more complex. A system of political control, security, detention camps, and local administration in northeastern Syria. A system that to this day serves as a bullwark against the defeated Islamic State. So what is the problem? Well, with the arrival of the new year, the Syrian government launched military operations against the Kurdish district in the city of Aleppo. while also sending its troops to northeastern Syria, where most of the country's Kurds live. In other words, it has launched a military offensive against this ethnic group. An offensive that surprisingly has had the blessing of the United States. — Well, I like the Kurds, but just so you understand, the Kurds were paid tremendous amounts of money, were given oil and other things, so they were doing it for themselves more so than us. Trump already betrayed the Kurds in Iraq once during his first term. And it seems he's now doing the same in Syria, be that as it may, amid the mounting pressure from forces loyal to Al Galani. News broke at the end of January that could mark a turning point. Kurdish forces agree with the Syrian government on their administrative and military integration into the state. The agreement gives Damascus full control over the territory, borders, and resources of the northeast, which have been in Kurdish hands for most of the war. a historic agreement, perhaps another step towards the reconstruction of Syria. Well, you know what? It may not be such good news for Washington. Why? Let me explain. Although on paper, this agreement seeks to integrate Kurdish militia groups into the Syrian state to supposedly unify the country. This move involves dismantling, absorbing, or replacing the Kurdish system that has been ISIS's jailer for years. A move that could jeopardize many of the advances we have seen so far in these territories. The Kurds had established a functional organization. Will the new Syrian leadership achieve the same? Is that really its priority? We'll see. But this is not the only challenge facing Syria, which the no longer so new al-Shar government seems to want to build. Syria holds first elections since Assad, but not in all provinces. They have postponed the polls for security reasons in two Kurdish controlled provinces and a third which saw deadly fighting between government forces and Drews militias. Just over a year ago, Syria experienced something that had seemed impossible for more than a decade. The Assad family regime, which had been in power for 53 years, collapsed after a devastating rebel offensive lasting just 11 days. 11 days that took not only Damascus by surprise but also Moscow, Tehran, Washington and practically the rest of the world with the possible exception of Israel and

Ukraine which appear to have played a very active role in that operation. In any case, the fall of Bashar al-Assad officially ended a civil war that lasted almost 14 years and left a devastating toll. more than 600,000 dead, millions wounded, entire cities reduced to rubble, and one of the largest human displacements since World War II. And with the end of the war, something much deeper also collapsed. The feared security apparatus that turned Syria into what for decades many called the Kingdom of Silence. A country where expressing an opinion could cost you your freedom or your life. And with all this, the question that arises is whether the Kingdom of Silence is back. Also, for the 40% of the country that is made up of social minorities. That's why today on Visual Politic, we're asking several questions. What is Ahmad Al-Shar's Syria really like in 2026? What is happening to minorities? Is it moving towards a democratic system? And most importantly, to what extent does the mistreatment of ISIS guards pose a real risk of old enemies resurfacing? Pay close attention because here we go. But first, if you're interested in the world of investing, if you want to learn how to manage your savings, protect yourself against inflation, and figure out how to make money beyond your day job, I've got some news for you. At Visual Factory, we've created the Visual Factory Club, a newsletter where every week we send out free content focused on essential financial education, the ABC of what everyone should know to understand the stock market, financial markets in general, investment platforms, how to assess investment opportunities, and which markets may have more or less potential. Because of course, if you want to invest your money so you're not at the mercy of your country's economic instability, you at least need to understand the basics of the financial world. In the Visual Factory Club, you'll learn all of this completely free of charge. Through the link below and this QR code, you can sign up for the club and start receiving the upcoming editions. What's more, when you sign up, you'll receive a dossier where I explain in a clear and simple way the most essential investment concepts. what multiples or the PE ratio are, what indices are, ETFs, derivatives, funds, EPS, you get the idea. After that, every week, you'll receive additional materials and market analysis to help you stay informed about what's going on. And by the way, the sooner you sign up, the better. Since we send each episode of the series by email, and every edition is unique, if you're not subscribed, you might miss some of them, and you won't be able to access them later. But with that said, let's get into the video. The new Syria. A year after Assad's fall, the new power in Damascus has achieved something that seemed impossible. Reintegrating Syria into the international community in record time. Al Giulani has understood one basic thing. Power in Syria cannot be consolidated with guns alone. They also need recognition, money, sanctions to be lifted, new trade routes, agreements, and even photos at international conferences. In other words, the world must accept them. — There was a great understanding, and I believe we're at the 95% point, and the current US administration under President Trump's presidency supports lifting the sanctions imposed on Syria, as you've all seen, and I believe this applies to the majority of the world's countries. And when we talk about the Syrian people, we're talking about 25 million people. And even Syria has great strategic importance and influence on regional stability. And this should not be linked to some people who are not convinced when it comes to lifting sanctions on Syria. So I believe we're headed towards the lifting of sanctions. In order to achieve this, the diplomatic offensive over the last year has been phenomenal, especially because no one expected a guy with a jihadist past to be able to move so well in the halls of expensive suits. He has forged his relationship with Donald Trump, is regularly seen surrounded by Saudi shakes, and has managed to make many worries disappear. Syria is back on the map after 15 years of being a huge generator of chaos, refugees, drugs, crises, and on top of that, the Islamic State setting up a caliphate as if it were a video game. So obviously, it's no surprise that the world was eager to cling to anything resembling stable order in the country. Without going too far back, in February 2026, Saudi Arabia launched an investment fund in Syria that will allocate $2 billion to develop two airports in Aleppo. Everyone seems delighted with the Syrian leader who has even tried to keep Iranian elements in Syria at bay. This has been perceived in Washington and many other capitals as almost divine music. But okay, so far so good, right? Syria is being rebuilt. The government is accepted. Investments are returning. However, as is always the case in the Middle East, things are often not how they appear. Transitional justice in Syria is frozen. Not slow, not under construction, but frozen. In other words, the legal proceedings that should be taking place against the crimes committed by the previous regime are not happening. And what has been set in motion instead? Well, revenge operations, settling of scores, and the law of the strongest. And the fact is that this is exactly what we've been seeing in the country in

recent months. We're talking about almost daily targeted killings of figures linked to the old regime, particularly in areas where society is multithnic and multiffaith, such as Homs, the country's third largest city. This is the flip side of Al-Shar's new Syria. Internal violence against Alawites has been brutal. We're talking about a minority linked to the Shiite branch of Islam that accounts for around 10% of the population and is concentrated mainly on the country's coast. This group has been the backbone of the political and military apparatus since the 1970s with the Assad family. And that means that for many Syrians, the concept of Alawite is not just a religious identity, but a political label. It's like saying they were the regime. A label that not surprisingly has automatically put them in the crosshairs. It doesn't matter if someone was a civil servant, a private soldier, or just a neighbor. For many, being Alawite is equivalent to being guilty. For months, selective killings have been constant. And the most significant thing is not only that they happen, but how they happen and what happens afterwards. They are not investigated. No one is usually arrested. There is not a single sign that such things will not be allowed in the new Syria. And some of you are probably thinking, "Well, Josh, they deserve it. " Well, let's see. There's a problem with that line of thinking. First, you can't lump everyone together. And second, revenge only begget revenge. So, we're not even talking about spontaneous anger, about angry people losing control. No, we're talking about something much more serious, a deliberate absence on the part of the new authorities. Many analysts feel that the new system is tolerating this level of violence because it suits them. It suits them to consolidate their power, to wipe out any resistance, and to make it clear who is in charge. A good example of this occurred in March 2025 when there was an attempted rebellion organized by former officers loyal to al-Assad. What was the government's response? They did not hesitate to use a heavy hand, not only against the rebels, but against the population itself. Syrian forces massacred 1,500 Alawites. The chain of command led to Damascus. A Reuters investigation found 40 distinct sites of killings, looting, and arson during three days of sectarian massacres following an Assad loyalist insurgency. And so for 4 days, a veritable massacre took place in Latakia, a city on the Syrian coast where hundreds of civilians, mostly Alawites, of course, were killed. Who was responsible? Among them was the General Security Service, which reports to the Ministry of the Interior. Alongside them were forces linked to the government, such as those known as unit 400 and the Ofman Brigade. This collection was also joined by Sunni militia groups that had recently joined the government, such as the Sultan Sullean Sha Brigade and the Hamza Division, both of which are sanctioned by the European Union. In short, all the forces involved in this massacre ultimately answered to the Syrian government. It was a government action and Latakia was not an isolated case. Suida, another southern province, witnessed another massacre in July last year. In this case, it was against Drews civilians whom the government considered to be silent supporters of Bashar al-Assad. The result of this operation, more than 800 dead, 140,000 displaced, Suida practically isolated, and Israel coming to its protection. Israel attacks targets in Syria in defense of the Drews minority. Netanyahu says Israel will not tolerate any threat against the Drews in Syria. Today, their leader, Hikmat al-Hiji, has declared Sueda an independent province and created a national guard, unifying the armed factions under his leadership. So, between this, Israel's growing protection of the Drews, the threats of uprising in various parts of the country. All this led the Syrian government to promise to stop the violence for which it created a kind of council for civil peace, a type of justice body. And in mid- November 25, a public trial was held against loyalists of the old regime. And also this was the novelty against members of the new security forces accused of participating in the massacres on the coast. But of course, in the end, those accused of the violence were low-level officials, not the people who actually gave the orders. What's more, the commissions have been criticized for their slowness, bureaucracy, and above all, their limited scope. Alawites claimed the new regime was behind massacre messages from survivors decry the duplicity of Syria's new leadership. In the end, despite all their promises and a few minor accusations, the commissions focused almost exclusively on the crimes of the Assad regime, leaving out abuses committed by themselves. In other words, what was supposed to be an instrument of reparation ended up also becoming in a way an instrument of revenge. And then came the offensive against the Kurds. Put another way, Al Giuliani promised reconciliation, but he's delivering violence. And naturally, the risk of everything blowing up is not exactly small, but it could be that's just the way he is. Which brings us to the second

Achilles heel of this new Syria. Let's be honest, on the one hand, yes, it's completely true that Syria has made a huge leap forward in terms of freedom, at least in much of the country. In 2024, people did not dare to protest about the price of a kilo of onions. In 2025, however, ministers have been publicly criticized and resignations have been demanded. Even so, that doesn't mean that the system is opening up. Far from it. While during the civil war, the word democracy was always present, now it has disappeared, supposedly on a temporary basis. On the 13th of March 2025, Al-Shara signed Syria's constitutional declaration as a 5-year transition framework. This declaration until we have a final constitution gave the current president a mandate of five years and then there will be elections. During these five years many laws will be enacted and the constitution also will be drafted during these elections and it will be presented during this period. It sounds quite reasonable, but when you dig deeper, many gray areas begin to emerge. That provisional constitution has given the presidency such a high level of power that it's almost equivalent to that of the al-Assad government to the point that basically everything depends on this former alqaeda leader. Furthermore, the regions dominated by Alawites and Kurds have been excluded from the formation of the parliament itself. But that's not all. In this context, what many already considered to be one of the most disturbing elements of the new Syria has also emerged. The Office of Political Affairs. On paper, it's just another administrative entity created to regulate political and social activity. In practice, it's a new apparatus of political control. It began by occupying the former buildings of Al-Assad's party and took on a very specific role, deciding who can organize, meet, or act politically and who cannot. No one can organize without the approval of this body which reports directly to the president himself. Furthermore, the government has also made it clear that many of the censorship and political control laws of the old regime will remain in force. The outcome, no one expected effective democracy in Syria. But what we're seeing with state violence against minorities and its growing system of political control is basically the establishment of an authoritarian state where the president will exercise his will with an iron fist. Perhaps this comes as no surprise, but it clashes sharply with the image that is being sold in the West. And the biggest problem is that old habits could end up repeating. What do I mean? Take a look. — The return of the Islamic State. The United States has been active in Syria for years with one very specific goal. to finish off the Islamic State, ensure that it does not reconstitute itself, and in passing protect strategic points such as the oil fields in the northeast. But now, Washington has decided that perhaps it would be best to pack its bags. US is withdrawing all forces from Syria, officials say. Trump administration is looking to strengthen diplomatic relations with country's new leaders. Near collapse of US's Kurdish allies after fighting government forces has led Pentagon to question the benefits of stationing troops in Syria. We've said this before. Talking about the fight against ISIS necessarily means talking about the Kurds. The United States has relied on the Syrian Democratic Forces for years as its main partner on the ground. When ISIS was expelled from Iraq and retreated to Syria, the war became a human meat grinder. Urban combat tunnels, mines, car bombs. And in that conflict, those who suffered thousands of deaths were the Kurds. The Kurds not only defeated the Islamic State militarily, but they also built something crucial in all this. A system of territorial control, prisons, detention camps, local administration and basic security in the northeast of the country. That system is now the barrier between total chaos and something resembling order. The Kurds are the jailers of the Islamic State on behalf of the West. And the fact is that this system is largely sustained because they have the cover of the United States. But of course, now that's over. Washington has decided to bet everything on a single card, Al Giuliani. Trump's logic is simple. There's a new boss in Damascus. And if he's given power, support, and trust, the Syrian chapter will be closed once and for all. Less trouble, even if it means betraying old friends and looking the other way regarding the future of the country. So, what's the problem beyond political ethics? That the entire security system against ISIS could end up fracturing. We saw the first consequences at the beginning of this video. Do you remember? — 1,500 ISIS fighters escape prison camps as Syrian forces push north. Army officials and Kurdish leaders have each accused the other of orchestrating the release of terrorists as Damascus seeks to unify the nation. And the worst thing is that this could just be the beginning. In Alshar's new Syria, there are thousands of jihadist fighters held in prison camps controlled by the very Kurds that Al Gulani's government now wants to dismantle. Be aware of the risk this poses. Washington's new directive is to trust Syria's new strongman and

let him take care of things to let the former leader of Alqaeda be the one to bring them into line now. Visual politic community progress has been made in Syria, but as you can see, the story is not as rosy as they sometimes want us to believe. The question is, have these guys who are now in power really changed that much? Why betray your former allies again? Are we witnessing the birth of a strong Syria or a fragile transition that could collapse at the first sign of trouble? Leave us your opinions below in the comments and let's fire up the debate. And very importantly, if you like this video, give it a like and subscribe to Visual Politic if you haven't already. These small gestures help us out a lot. And as always, thank you very much for being there. All the best. I'll see you next time.