China Can Now Take Taiwan (But It Has Discovered Something Better) | VisualPolitik EN

We can't take our eyes off the Strait of Hormuz, but the truth is that while we're distracted by the Ayatollahs, others are taking advantage of the situation to do as they please in another critical waterway. Things could get very complicated for Trump. The situation in the Taiwan Strait is white hot. Can China really take Taiwan by force? Well, there are compelling arguments that would suggest yes. — When you look at the odds, China's a very, very powerful, big country. That's a very small island. It's You think of it, it's 59 miles away. 59 miles. Uh, we're 9,500 miles away. Uh, that's a little bit of a difficult problem. — Never before in recent history has China been so close to having the actual capability to do so. And we're not the one saying it. The US Department of Defense itself is saying it. And pay close attention. According to its latest report on the People's Liberation Army, Beijing aims to have the military capabilities necessary to take the island as early as next year. And according to that same report, its plans are proceeding exactly as planned. But watch out, because it's not just about what China can do, it's also about what the United States can and wants to do. And this is where things get truly troubling. The war against Iran has left US arsenals at rock bottom. And there are serious doubts that in the event of a conflict over the island, Washington would have the resources to contain China. — China sees a giant with a limp as US drains weapons on Iran war. America's ability to deter China in a war over Taiwan is weakened, Chinese analysts say. — And if there are already doubts about the ability to respond, there are even greater doubts about the will to do so. Trump has publicly maintained his usual strategic ambiguity. He neither confirms nor denies that the United States would defend Taiwan. The famous we'll see the status quo as always, but it's clear that Washington is concerned about what might happen on this island because it may not be in a position to do anything. And do you know what that means? Concessions. That's exactly what we saw recently in Beijing with the US president's visit that amounted to nothing more than a few photos, a few gestures for show, a serious warning from Xi Jinping specifically about Taiwan, and a couple of concessions from the United States such as backing down from most of the threats and punishments Trump has used in recent months. Well, that and also this. — US arms sales to Taiwan on pause due to Iran war, says acting Navy chief. — US arms sales to Taiwan are on hold, and this is no small matter. It's a massive blow to the Taiwanese government, a spanner in the works of President Lai Ching-te's strategy, who has been trying for years to expand deterrence against China by any means necessary. They're doing this by investing, for example, tens of thousands of dollars. But logically, without US weapons, that deterrence is faltering. And pay attention because doubts about American resolve are neither new nor unfounded. War games, simulations, and classified reports that have been leaking out all point to the same thing. A conflict over Taiwan would cost thousands of American casualties, dozens of warships, and hundreds of aircraft, and very likely at least one aircraft carrier. A cost so high that it leads many analysts to believe that when the time comes, the United States would not enter the conflict. And that's not to mention the devastation it would cause to the supply chain for the most critical technological component, chips. Therefore, the United States could not afford a war on this island. It needs to negotiate, and the problem is that Beijing knows this. Now, does that mean Taiwan is lost? Is it only a matter of time before China decides to cross the strait? Well, let's not jump to conclusions. In March 2026, the US intelligence community released its annual threat assessment and take note of what it said. — China has no plans to invade Taiwan in 2027, according to a report by US intelligence agencies. — They do, as we've seen, have a huge window of opportunity. So, what's holding Beijing back? Well, that's exactly what we're going to look at in this video. Of course, before we dive in, let me give you a hint. Ukraine, Iran, and asymmetric warfare. So, the question is, how are the wars in Iran and Ukraine changing Beijing's calculations? What is the state of China's military build-up? And above all, will Taiwan be able to defend itself? Well, let's find out. 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Or But with that said, let's get into the video. To understand whether Taiwan can hold out, we firstly need to understand what it's up against. And what it's facing isn't a static army, it's a machine that has been accelerating non-stop for years. Take a look at this statistic. Today, China has three aircraft carriers. By 2035, it aims to have nine. To give you an idea, the current US fleet consists of 11 and those 11 are spread out across the globe, not concentrated primarily in specific waters. And this is not an isolated case. The same thing is happening with fighter jets, drones, amphibious assault ships, and frigates. In virtually every category of its military inventory, the pattern is exactly the same: more, more modern, and faster. The fact is, the Chinese military is on an unprecedented roll. Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, the declared defense budget has nearly doubled. They've gone more than 20 consecutive years without a single cut. 20 years. But be careful with the term declared, because the Pentagon estimates that China's actual defense spending is between $304 billion and $377 billion. That is, up to 63% higher than what Beijing publicly acknowledges. And it's not just that they're acquiring more weapons every year, it's that they've been preparing to use them for years. — China's military drills are the region's greatest source of instability, Taiwan's premier says. China's armed forces operate almost daily around Taiwan, with ships carrying out live firing and other drills to test and enhance the realistic combat training capabilities of the forces. — And I know what you're thinking. This isn't new, that we've been hearing headlines about Chinese military preparations for years, and that by now it surprises no one. When you really scrutinize the data, you realize that something has changed. It's not just that China is preparing, it's that it's preparing faster and with more brazenness than ever before. The data doesn't lie. Look at what happened in 2024 alone. Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait in more than 60% of all their flights. A year earlier, the percentage was between 20 and 40%. At sea, the Chinese navy was deployed around the island on 75% of the days of the year. In 2023, it was 46% in 2022, barely 27%. And the escalation is not limited to the purely military sphere. Cyber attacks linked to China against Taiwanese infrastructure skyrocketed by 150%. What's more, with Operation Joint Sword, we've already witnessed the first-ever simulation of a total blockade of the island in history. Navy, Air Force, missile forces, and Coast Guard all coordinated surrounding Taiwan on all sides at once. And the surprises aren't limited to the numbers. Take a look at the image on your screen. These are the Xue Xiao barges off the Chinese coast. They serve as floating platforms from which to launch a ground invasion of the island. They allow for the creation of a bridge over the water far from the shore, which protects troops from coastal fire and facilitates all the logistics of the assault. And if that doesn't seem enough, check out this other image. This is a Chinese military base in the Inner Mongolian Desert. It's called Zhurihe. And what you see built there is a full-scale replica of Taiwan's Presidential Palace. Next to it, the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The PLA has been training for assaults on these structures since 2015. And since 2020, they have tripled the size of the complex. Next, there is a branch of the armed forces that has not stopped growing and to which Beijing attaches top-level importance, the Rocket Force. Look at the rank they've given it. It's on the same level as the Air Force, the Navy, or the Army. It's an independent branch with its own chain of command, its own budget, and its own doctrine. And obviously, its main target is Taiwan. And this is no trivial matter. Let's be blunt. China is gearing up. Every year it spends more. Every year it

gains more capability. Every year it trains more. And every year it tightens the screws. That is crystal clear. And yet, something is holding them back. Because as we mentioned before, US intelligence says Beijing isn't committed to invading in 2027. They've backed off. But, why? Well, let's see. It's impossible to know for sure. And the truth is, we can put a lot of factors on the table. One of them, for example, is political. Recently, the leader of the Kuomintang visited China. And for Xi Jinping, that's a very interesting sign. Because if the Taiwanese opposition keeps gaining ground, perhaps the island will simply fall like ripe fruit. They'll have reached an agreement that will have Beijing rubbing its hands together without firing a single missile. But, there's another factor, one that is possibly the most decisive of all. And that is the one we're interested in this video. Ukraine and Iran, two real-time wars that have demonstrated something many analysts already suspected, but which is now confirmed on the ground. A smaller army with the right weapons and the right doctrine can inflict devastating damage on a superior military power. Cheap drones can sink extremely expensive frigates. Ballistic missiles can paralyze airports in a matter of minutes. They have shown that the ability to adapt to the enemy on the fly is worth more than tons of steel. And this is something that both China and Taiwan have noticed. Of course, the two have drawn very different conclusions. Beijing has watched as the United States, with all its military might, has failed to topple the Iranian regime. It has seen how low-cost missiles and drones have kept the world's most powerful navy in check for months, and it has taken note. Taipei, for its part, has seen how Ukraine, with an army infinitely smaller than Russia's, has managed to hold its territory for years. It has seen how drones have destroyed columns of tanks, how anti-ship missiles have sunk warships, and driven the Russian fleet out of the Black Sea. How Ukraine, without a single frigate, has managed to deny Russia maritime control of its own inland lake. And how its air defense systems have turned Ukrainian airspace into a graveyard for Russian missiles and aircraft, forcing Putin's air force to operate on the defensive. And China has taken note as well. The question, naturally, is what each side has done with those lessons. But before answering that, there's one geographical fact that determines everything. Taiwan is an island of 36,000 square kilometers, just 180 kilometers off the coast of mainland China. And that, in military terms, is no minor detail. It's the factor that defines absolutely everything else. Any attempt to take the island requires two non-negotiable conditions: air superiority and naval superiority. Without control of the air, Chinese ships are floating targets. Without control of the sea, no troops can reach the shore. Nor is there any way to cut off the supply lines on which Taiwan is entirely dependent. And this is where things get interesting, because on paper, China should have those capabilities. It has more planes, more ships, more missiles. But as Ukraine has taught us, paper and the battlefield are two very different things. — Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth. — What's more, Taiwan is already putting many of these lessons into practice. For example, one of the key factors that allowed the Iranian regime to survive the American onslaught was the so-called mosaic defense. Instead of concentrating command in a centralized leadership that is easy to decapitate, you distribute authority across dozens of independent nodes capable of operating on their own. Destroy one and the others keep functioning. There is no head to cut off because the entire body is the head and Taiwan is incorporating something very similar into its own military. — If the enemy suddenly launches an attack, all units are to implement distributed control without waiting for orders and under a decentralized mode of command, carry out their combat missions. — For obvious reasons, not all the details are known, but it is exactly the kind of strategy that could allow Taiwan to overcome any initial shock, withstand the first blow, keep functioning when China expects everything to have collapsed. And not only that, the government is now promoting a massive domestic drone industry funding it with $17 billion over 5 years. The comparison they themselves use says it all. They want to do with drones what they did with semiconductors, build another TSMC, that is, become a global leader. And they're already working full steam ahead on that. Of course, this isn't limited to drones. They're doing something very similar with missiles. — By the end of this year, Taiwan will have completed mass production of its domestically manufactured Hsiung Feng II and III missiles. The goal is to make Taiwan the country with the highest density of anti-ship missiles in the world. Every Chinese ship attempting to cross the strait would be within range of dozens of missiles fired from land, from aircraft, and from small vessels. — Besides that, Taiwan is also developing capabilities that go far beyond

defending its coastline. It's developing the ability to strike the mainland. Take a look at the arsenal. The Hsiung Feng IIE is a land-based cruise missile with a range between 600 and 700 km, enough to reach Shanghai, enough to strike the major military bases in southern China. And then there is the Yun Feng I with an estimated range of between 1,200 and 2,000 km, a missile capable of reaching Beijing, and the Yun Feng 2, with hypersonic capability at Mach 6, and a mobile launch platform designed to be virtually impossible to intercept and detect before launch. And what could all this be used for? This is where the Iranian lesson comes into full play. Iran has demonstrated that ballistic missiles can inflict brutal economic damage: ports, refineries, energy infrastructure, logistics hubs. Taiwan could employ very similar strategies. Surgical strikes on crucial infrastructure that do not seek to win a battle, but rather to paralyze an economy. And what does all this mean? Well, that the risk, the potential cost to China, has skyrocketed, and that could be a significant deterrent. Now, does this mean that an offensive against Taiwan is off the table, as US intelligence suggests? Well, it seems so, but at the same time, no. Let me explain. China is also developing a host of alternative options, primarily involving asymmetric warfare, in case they become necessary. From large-scale subversion using espionage networks, massive cyber attacks, and disinformation campaigns, to partial or total naval blockades that serve as leverage for economic pressure. Can these options work? Well, there's no precedent in history where air power or an economic blockade alone has been enough to bring a country to its knees. But, it's true that Taiwan is different. A blockade would paralyze the global chip supply chain, which would mean the pressure wouldn't just be on Taipei, but on the rest of the world. Keep an eye on this. We'll look at it in more detail later. On top of that, regarding espionage, we're talking about a large-scale infiltration campaign. The numbers speak for themselves. Between 2000 and 2020, 62 documented cases of espionage were recorded. In 2023 alone, at least 16 came to light. At least 21 active or retired Taiwanese officers with the rank of captain or higher have been convicted of spying for China. And take note, the most serious cases aren't the most numerous. They're the ones that closest to the seat of power. In 2021, an investigation revealed that the fifth column had infiltrated the presidential security team itself. A retired officer and a lieutenant colonel in the military police were convicted of leaking information to Chinese intelligence services about the security protocols for President Tsai Ing-wen, her home, her routines, her movements. And then there's the most surreal case of all. An active-duty Taiwanese pilot was contacted and persuaded to attempt to fly an American-made CH-47 Chinook helicopter directly onto a Chinese aircraft carrier. And this is just what we know about. It doesn't take much to imagine what lies behind it. It's no exaggeration to assume that China has infiltrators in virtually every branch of the Taiwanese government. But the fact is that apart from spies, Beijing has another ace up its sleeve, contacts with organized crime groups. Take a look at what Martin Purbrick, an analyst specializing in the subject, wrote not long ago. — The Chinese Communist Party has increasingly co-opted Taiwanese organized crime groups, most notably the Bamboo Union, for its United Front efforts, using them to promote unification with the People's Republic of China and undermine Taiwan's democratic institutions. — These organizations could be activated to create chaos and total disaster in the early stages of an offensive. What's more, behind this entire intelligence and espionage network lies a team ready to carry out orders. We're talking about Chinese special forces, units that, although they have yet to prove their capabilities in actual combat, have been training for years to the limits of human endurance. Well, these, as I said, are Beijing's contingency plans. It's just another part of the tug-of-war we've been witnessing for years. Of course, this time there's an additional ingredient that could change everything, artificial intelligence. Visual Politics Community, Taiwan is the global hub of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. When you see Nvidia unveiling its latest innovations, Apple showcasing its newest iPhones or MacBooks, or the US military deploying advanced drones from a host of high-tech contractors like Anduril, all of that relies on cutting-edge chips, over 90% of which are manufactured in Taiwan. And above all, the race for artificial intelligence depends on these capabilities. Artificial intelligence will determine supremacy in many fields, from industry to the military. It is the greatest revolution we have ever known, both economically and geopolitically.

Just keep in mind that AI is crucial to robotics and what robotics could mean for warfare. So, why am I telling you this? Because there is a mad race between China and the United States. Uncle Sam seems to be in the lead, among other things, because he's been blocking China from buying cutting-edge technology for years. And the thing is, if that's the case, if it manages to gain an advantage and reaches a point where Beijing finds itself substantially behind, then they might be tempted to stop the race. How? By blocking Taiwan. In other words, the silicon shield that has protected this island for years could now become the spark that ignites a conflict. That's why Trump was so soft on Xi Jinping, because a blockade of Taiwan would be devastating in every way. It would block chip exports. But even if many could be shipped by plane or under escort, there would be another problem. The Taiwanese economy would suffer a devastating blow. It would struggle to maintain its pace of production. Fact is, Taiwan is not exactly a self-sufficient economy, quite the opposite. Its imports account for 58% of its GDP and its exports for to give you an idea of what that means, in China, those figures are just 17 and 20%. But, there's more. Taiwan relies on foreign sources for nearly 95% of its energy, and 70% of the food it consumes is imported. And obviously, with such a situation, it's clear that mass chip production wouldn't survive for long, and China could take advantage of that situation to force negotiations and extract concessions from Taiwan, and above all, from the rest of the world. Because the point is that now, for the first time, the Taiwan issue is not a matter of sovereignty, but of geopolitical rivalry, and a struggle for supremacy, and that changes everything. For years, Taiwan took refuge behind the silicon shield. Now, it must seek to become a player potentially as troublesome as Iran. And this is the major standoff brewing while we've all got our eyes on the Strait of Hormuz. That said, what do you make of all this? Let us know what you think in the comments. And if you found this video interesting, don't forget to like it and subscribe to Visual Politics. Take care, and I'll see you soon.